Expectations of the Toronto Blue Jays heading into the 2025 season

It’s a tricky narrative for the Blue Jays because there is an argument to be made that it’s not due to the front office’s lack of trying.

The club’s adjusted payroll sits at about $242 million per Spotrac, which is not a small sum by any means (ranking fifth in the Major Leagues) and the club hasn’t been afraid to throw money around in free agency as seen in the recent pursuits of Corbin Burnes, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto. The club is also throwing hundreds of millions at Guerrero in an attempt to lock him down as well, albeit still not hitting the value he is looking for. That narrative is a debate in its own right, but the Jays have brought players in to try and turn things around – Springer, Gausman, Bassitt, Hyun Jin Ryu, Marcus Semien – but that all has amounted to zero postseason wins. Six attempts – zero wins.

At the end of the day, the roster instability is a front office issue by and large, and a season that repeats what happened last year is going to be cause for concern on numerous fronts.

Duplicating the 2024 season, where the Jays are out of contention in late June, likely signals a change on multiple fronts for this organization.

Atkins will likely get canned, and Mark Shapiro might leave when his contract is up this winter. The Jays will have to contemplate the future of the organization and whether they want to capitalize on acquiring assets for their expiring contracts, both this year and next, regardless of whoever is at the helm. Another rebuild could be on the horizon, a gut punch for an organization that was promised a great farm system and postseason baseball when the duo took over years ago while also boasting a newly renovated stadium and Player Development Complex. While the renovations on both fronts have gone well, the on-field metrics are lacking, especially since the Jays’ farm system has fallen to the back end of the league pool in the eyes of analysts far and wide.

On paper, it all seems to make sense – including the spending on payroll and bringing in players like Scherzer and Santander this past winter. Chasing after premier free agents and playing in the deep end of the free-agent pool. Updating the different amenities to try and improve the development of players internally.

But still, the Jays are still looking for that crucial win in October, the one that felt like a guarantee when fans had to witness the rebuilding years of the late 2010s. That brutal time when veteran players like Russell Martin, Jose Bautitsa, Edwin Encarnacion, and many others were given their walking papers or signed elsewhere. It was a tough few years for the fanbase, and now, with players like Guerrero and Bichette flirting with free agency and projections showing the Jays to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the AL East, there is fear that a repeat may be on the horizon.

At the end of the day, there can be a lot of finger-pointing at where the fault lies, but the best thing the club can do is change the narrative – a task that is easier said than done. Winning solves everything – fans come to see a team that is putting runs on the board and is competing day in and day out.

Do the Blue Jays have a winning roster? That is still to be determined, especially with the first pitch just moments away. Once Jose Berrios throws toward home, the clock on the 2025 season officially begins, and so does arguably one of the most important seasons in franchise history.