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Aug 31, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Aaron Judge (99) watches his double against the Chicago White Sox during the third inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

How Next 12 Games Will Impact Aaron Judge-Cal Raleigh AL MVP Race

Originally posted on Fastball on SI | By Patrick McAvoy | Last updated Sep 1, 2025 6:54 PM ET

Over the next four weeks or so, one of the most fascinating storylines to follow across Major League Baseball will be the American League Most Valuable Player race.

It's a two-horse race right now -- barring something shocking -- between New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge and Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh.

Before we continue, let's take a look at the numbers for both as of writing.

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees:

Games: 127
Hits: 149
Runs: 110
Home Runs: 43
RBIs: 97
Stolen Bases: 9
Batting Average: .324
On-Base Percentage: .443
Slugging Percentage: .674
OPS: 1.117
WAR: 7.4

Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners:

Games: 134
Hits: 120
Runs: 88
Home Runs: 50
RBIs: 107
Stolen Bases: 14
Batting Average: .240
On-Base Percentage: .353
Slugging Percentage: .579
OPS: .932
WAR: 5.6

There's a real argument that either of these guys could -- and should win the award. Judge has been the best overall hitter in baseball. The closest player to Judge in batting average is Jacob Wilson .318. There are only seven players in baseball with a batting average at .300 or higher. Judge has dominated and is leading the league in WAR, runs scored, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS among other categories.

Who will come out on top?

The Yankees also have a 76-61 record, whereas the Mariners are at 73-64.

For Raleigh, his season is nothing short of historic as well. He broke Salvador Perez's record for homers in a single-season by a catcher and is still going. With Raleigh already at 50 homers, there's a real chance he can catch Judge's AL record of 62 homers. If he can reach that threshold, the award is his. That's too historic to pass up. He's leading the AL in homers and RBIs right now playing arguably the most grueling position in the sport. Raleigh is a Gold Glove-level defender who is leading the league with 103 games played at catcher this year. What he's doing hasn't been done by a catcher. That's why this race is so close, despite Judge leading the league in a variety of stats.

There are still about four weeks left. For Judge to win the award, he needs to continue leading the league in all of these offensive categories because he's not going to add much defensively. He hasn't played the outfield since July 25th. This next 12-game stretch could be what wins -- or loses -- the award for Judge. The Yankees have series against the Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, and Boston Red Sox. These are playoff teams. These matchups can either move the Yankees up the standings -- maybe even to the top of the AL East, or bury New York lower in the Wild Card race. Maybe even behind the Raleigh-led Mariners.

For Raleigh, he already has made history. He needs one more strong month, get close to -- or pass Judge's home run record -- and make the playoffs. Judge already is a two-time MVP. It's tough to win over voters when you already have done the unimaginable. For his MVP case -- especially at DH -- he needs to get the Yankees up the standings -- at least in front of Seattle -- while simply leading the AL in too many categories to argue against. These next 12 games arguably are Judge's best chance to make up ground in the standings and showing he can dominate against the best in the league.

Who will come out on top?

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This article first appeared on Fastball on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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