Is Chad Green cut out to be the Blue Jays closer in 2025?

Strikeouts were down, walks were up, exit velocity was up, and despite boasting an ERA under 2.00 for most of the season, his expected ERA of 3.80 and 4.29 FIP indicated Green was due for a blowup. The month of September caught up with him as his ERA shot up from 1.62 to 3.21 in the span of nine games in September.

Green was fine in a pinch when the Blue Jays didn’t have any decent pitchers to close out games in 2024, but what about 2025 when this team should be competitive again? Can they roll with the former Yankee as the go-to closer in 2025?

Deep dive into the numbers

First off, I think a little perspective is required. Some folks compare his 2024 numbers to his brief stint in 2023 down the stretch with the Blue Jays, which aren’t apples-to-apples. It’s best to weigh his previous full season in 2021 with his 2024 numbers and under that lens, things look a little less grim.

On the whole, a lot of Green’s numbers from 2024 were on track with his stats from his last full season with the Yankees in 2021. But the major red flag is the significant drop in strikeout rate from 31.4% in 2021 to 21.9% in 2024. High-pressure situations aren’t times when you can mess around, which is why most high-leverage pitchers have big strikeout numbers. Managers cannot afford to put the ball in play with the slimmest of margins, and a 21.9% strikeout rate is quite low for a high-leverage arm, let alone a closer.

It depends on where the Blue Jays want to go this offseason and where they deem they need to allocate the most resources. If they’re going for a big bat or a big arm to boost up the starting rotation, overhauling the bullpen will become less of a priority.

Sticking with Green as the closer in 2025 isn’t a detriment to the Blue Jays, but if he’s closing games out of Spring Training, then the Blue Jays prioritized other areas on the roster rather than the bullpen. Keep in mind, this is a team that’s projected to have the third-worst bullpen in MLB in 2025. It’s not an inditement on this front office if the team doesn’t roll into next season with a shiny new closer. Yes, the Blue Jays could be successful in 2025 with Chad Green as their nine-inning arm but his strengths are suited more to how he pitched for the team back in 2023; as the seventh or eighth-inning guy in more of a setup capacity.

Until he can get his strikeout numbers back into the 25-30% range, his stuff doesn’t play the best within save situations. The best relievers in the league are rocking at least a 30% strikeout rate and their Stuff+ is 125 or higher. Green’s 120 Stuff+ ranked 39th of 169 qualified relievers this past season.

But on that same token, Toronto can augment their bullpen on the fly much easier than reshaping a starting rotation or fortifying a starting lineup. They don’t have to shop at the top of the market by signing Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman, but Paul Sewald and Clay Holmes would be a nice start. Pair them in late-game relief roles with potentially trading for St. Louis Cardinals’ closer Ryan Helsey and the Blue Jays suddenly have at least a league-average bullpen again. Hell, even betting on a bounce-back season from Pittsburgh Pirates closer David Bednar would be a vast improvement.

The Blue Jays and their bullpen overhaul

There are several ways the Blue Jays could take this thing in the offseason, but as much as Ross Atkins wants to downplay how little of a budget the team has for the bullpen, additions need to be made.

He said the team might need to get “creative” and they’ve already done the first part of that heavy lifting by releasing Genesis Cabrera and non-tendering Romano and Dillon Tate. Now comes the addition portion, whether that’s via free agency and/or trading to bulk up the bullpen.

Green is one of the few Blue Jays relievers from 2024 who will be back at Spring Training. But will he be the closer for the second consecutive season? If that’s the case, either the Blue Jays had an underwhelming offseason or they allocated their resources to the starting lineup and the rotation over the bullpen.