Jeff Hoffman Hasn’t Exactly Been What the Blue Jays Expected

The month of May brought Hoffman’s numbers back down to reality, and even further down than anyone could have thought. He made 12 appearances in May and pitched to an unsightly 13.50 ERA across 10 innings, striking out 14 batters and walking six while allowing 14 hits and 15 earned runs in the month. He managed to lock down seven saves in May but also blew three other opportunities.

On the 2025 season as a whole, Hoffman now has a 4.77 ERA through 60.1 innings of work, and he has a shockingly high 2.1 HR/9 rate. Yes, he’s evidently had his struggles this year, but he has also, at times, been one of Toronto’s most reliable arms when they’ve needed him the most.

When it comes to big-time situations late in games, Hoffman is still the guy that Toronto wants on the bump more than anyone else.

Remaining the Closer

As mentioned earlier, Hoffman signed a three-year free agent contract with the Toronto Blue Jays prior to the 2025 season, and the expectation at the time was that he would serve as the team’s closer for the duration of the contract. Even through his struggles at times this year, it can be argued that he still deserves to be given the ball with the game on the line.

His 30 saves rank tied with Trevor Megill of the Brewers for fourth in all of MLB, behind Carlos Estévez of the Royals, Robert Suarez of the Padres, and Andrés Muñoz of the Mariners. He’s in elite company in terms of closing games out, and he’s one of only two Blue Jay relievers to appear in at least 60 games this season, alongside left-hander Brendon Little.

According to FanGraphs, the Blue Jays have had the league’s 16th-best bullpen by fWAR, and this can only be improved by Hoffman finding his former All-Star level of performance once again. He’s not the only struggling reliever in Toronto this season, and the Jays had to make several bullpen additions at this year’s trade deadline to bolster their struggling ‘pen.

In terms of closing games, Hoffman is still undoubtedly the team’s best option. The only other feasible options to replace him as the team’s ninth-inning anchor are the southpaw Brendon Little, who has struggled mightily with his command throughout the season and has never held a full-time closing position in MLB, or Yariel Rodríguez, a converted starter who’s actually found great success this season pitching out of the back-end of Toronto’s bullpen.

Regardless of what has happened leading up to this point in the season to tank Hoffman’s perceived reliability in the eyes of Blue Jay fans, the fact is he’s been absolutely nails out of the bullpen when they’ve needed it. In fact, he’s been one of the team’s most important and dependable arms in spite of his 4.77 ERA.

Is Hoffman Going To Be Reliable?

The short answer is yes, even though he’s been very shaky this season for the Blue Jays. Hoffman was signed by the team to close games, and he’s successfully locked down 30 save opportunities already in 2025. With how strong his pitch mix is and his incredible presence on the mound, he’s got everything one needs to be a strong closer, and it’s just a matter of time until he sorts it out.

If you’re a little uncertain at the thought of Hoffman closing out games in the postseason, here’s a little food for thought in the form of his statistics against division rivals.

Four out of Toronto’s six remaining series are against divisional opponents, and Hoffman has actually been very strong against AL East teams this season. The following chart is a breakdown of Hoffman’s statistics against each division in 2025 as of September 8, with the bolded numbers indicating his best performance in each of the given statistics.

The numbers show that Hoffman has been very effective against intra-divisional opponents, limiting walks and hits to an extreme extent against Toronto’s AL East rivals.

Even though it may seem to Blue Jay fans that he has been an unreliable reliever, his worst appearances this season have come against non-playoff teams like the Los Angeles Angels (three games, 32.39 ERA), the Minnesota Twins (four games, 12.27 ERA), and the Athletics (three games, 15.00 ERA). He definitely seems to save his best for the harder opponents.

In Hoffman’s 32 outings this season against teams that currently (as of Sept. 8) are within 2.5 games of a playoff spot, he has a 1.69 ERA across 32 innings with rates of 4.8 H/9, 12.1 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9.

In those 32 games, he has a record of 6-2 and has locked down 15 of 17 save opportunities. So after further review, you might want to choose Hoffman to close games down the stretch, especially when the majority of the teams Toronto is going to face will be playoff-bound.

It’s important to focus on these appearances specifically because they give greater insight into how Hoffman performs when the stakes are higher. These statistics indicate that Hoffman might feed off the adrenaline and energy that comes with a more intense matchup, whether it is a divisional opponent or a playoff-bound one (or both).

Closing Thoughts

While Jeff Hoffman has certainly had many ups and downs this season for the Toronto Blue Jays, he’s still capable of playing like the $33 million closer that the team signed in free agency. He started the season off red-hot and has since cooled down, but he’s a few strong outings away from being back to the form he was in during the 2024 campaign for the Phillies.

As the season winds down and the postseason approaches ever so quickly, Hoffman’s strength of pitching his best against the most important opponents will shine as bright as ever, and the Jays’ signing of him will make increasingly more sense.

There’s simply no way a pitcher with the poise, presence, and pure pitching ability of Hoffman doesn’t deserve to close games in October, and the Blue Jays have provided him with an excellent opportunity to do just that. Keep your eyes on Toronto’s closer, because that 4.77 ERA is hiding an absolute beast at the back end of their bullpen.