Kyle Tucker + Blue Jays Fantasy Impact

What If Kyle Tucker Joins the Mets? Fantasy Baseball Impact Explained

This morning, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers is reporting that the Toronto Blue Jays are willing to make a long-term offer to Kyle Tucker.  Yesterday, it was reported that the New York Mets made a $50 million per season offer to Tucker for either three or four years in length.  There has been speculation on sites such as MLB Trade Rumors saying that his agents at Excel Sports Management are seeking an eight-year deal that will rival the Juan Soto deal, which averages $51 million per year.  He won’t get that.

Take more money or take the security of less money with more guaranteed years?  

Let’s take a look at what happens if Kyle Tucker does sign with the AL Pennant-winning Blue Jays who missed a World Championship losing Games 6 and 7 on unlikely double plays.  It is easily the closest I can remember to a team winning since the 1986 New York Mets were on the cusp of losing Game 6 and then again were losing in Game 7.

Kyle Tucker Stats and Injury History

Yesterday, we gave you the recent performance in the speculation piece about Tucker and the New York Mets.  He had a .266 batting average but a top on base percentage of .377.  He smashed 22 home runs, drove in 73, scored 91 and stole 25 bases.

With a short-term deal, the injury risk and the aging is not as important as with a long-term deal.  We have to mention it here.  Kyle Tucker had huge years in 2022 and 2023 playing almost all games without an IL trip.  The production was great.  All other years have him missing time at some point.  The Blue Jays must know this and need to discount this when they offer him a number of years guaranteed.

In most projections now, we see that he is projected for similar batting average and on base percentage, but we must look at where he lands to see if the ballpark, team philosophy and lineup will help.

Why the Blue Jays Want Tucker

The Blue Jays have been very aggressive this offseason.  The signing of Dylan Cease creates a dominant rotation with Jose Berrios, Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage and Ricky Tiedeman waiting in the wings for when injury occurs.

The offense got a lot better with the signing of Kazuma Okamoto. Their lineup is strong.  He is a professional hitter who is less than 30 years old, but has more than 10 years professional experience. 

One possible lineup:

• DH: George Springer (R)
• RF: Kyle Tucker (L)
• 1B: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (R)
• LF: Anthony Santander (S)
• CF: Dalton Varsho (L)
• C: Alejandro Kirk
• 3B: Addison Barger (L) / Kazuma Okamoto (R)
• 2B: Ernie Clement (R)
• SS: Andres Gimenez (L)

Solid.  All the way up and down with players who do what is needed to succeed.  Walks, sacrifices, and stolen bases.  

Tucker’s Projection

What to expect from Tucker?  He will see a ton of fastballs if he is protected by Vladdy.  That means more power. The ballpark gives him an 8% boost alone.  The Rogers Centre however, was one of the hardest surfaces in the majors and the surface was replaced for the 2022 season.  The Blue Jays now have enough money invested in these players that they should invest in a new grass field.  

Let’s assume that he can stay healthy even with the history and the field conditions.  He will have more runs scored and more home runs so we predict: .275 batting average with 30 home runs, 105 runs scored, 85 runs batted in and 25 stolen bases.

Playing SMART on Tucker

Kyle Tucker signing with the Toronto Blue Jays breaks two of the Rules of Engagement in the SMART System.  If you listened to me on SiriusXM, I said for all sports analysis “players who get hurt tend to get hurt again.”  Tucker’s injury risks make a discount necessary.  

Also, Rule 3, “Do not pay big bucks for free agents who signed big contracts to play in a new city.  Adjustments (to a new city, new teammates, new place to live, etc.) take a couple of months and as a result, year-long stats suffer. “  Yes, players can make up for it after they get adjusted like Juan Soto did last year, but he stayed in the same city.  If Tucker goes to the Blue Jays, expect a slow start in April and definitely worry about more injuries playing on turf.  

People Also Ask

What are Kyle Tucker’s 2026 fantasy projections?
Tucker is projected to maintain strong power and on-base skills in 2026.

How would joining the Blue Jays affect his fantasy value?
A healthier lineup and more runs could boost counting stats.

Is Kyle Tucker worth a top-5 pick in 2026?
Yes in most formats if locked into full-time at-bats.

Does ballpark affect Tucker’s fantasy numbers?
Rogers Centre has mixed effects on power but strong lineup support helps.