Looking at the history of extensions for the Blue Jays under Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro’s leadership

The Toronto Blue Jays’ extension of Alejandro Kirk is an anomaly.

Kirk deserves his five-year, $58 million extension as he’s been the best defensive catcher in baseball the past three seasons while also winning a Silver Slugger award for the position in 2022. 

You know the Blue Jays’ current regime values him as well, as it was the third time since 2016 that they’ve extended a player. That, of course, doesn’t count buying out arbitration seasons as they did for Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman.

Let’s take a look at the two other times the Blue Jays have extended a player since Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins took over before the 2016 season.

Randal Grichuk

On Jan. 19, 2018, the Blue Jays sent relief pitchers Dominic Leone and Conner Greene to the St. Louis Cardinals for outfielder Randal Grichuk. He had shown promise in the past few seasons, slashing .276/.329/.548 with 17 home runs in 350 plate appearances for a 138 wRC+ in his first full season back in 2015. Although his wRC+ declined over the next two seasons, he hit the 20+ home run plateau in both times.

After the trade, Grichuk slashed .245/.301/.502 with 25 home runs in 462 plate appearances for a 114 wRC+ and a 3 fWAR, matching the fWAR he had in the 2015 season. Shortly into the 2019 season, Grichuk signed a five-year extension worth $52 million and slashed .232/.280/.457 with 31 home runs in 628 plate appearances for a 90 fWAR.

During the COVID season, Grichuk slashed .273/.312/.481 with 12 home runs in 231 plate appearances for a 108 wRC+. He looked good early in the 2021 season, helping the Blue Jays stay afloat while George Springer missed early in the season, but he finished the season with 22 home runs and an 85 wRC+, the worst mark of his career.

Before the 2022 season, the Jays sent Grichuk and some cash to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Raimel Tapia and prospect Adrian Pinto. Since then, he’s also played for the Los Angeles Angels and the Arizona Diamondbacks, finishing with a 139 wRC+ with 12 home runs in 279 plate appearances last season.

José Berríos

In Grichuk’s final season as a Blue Jay, the team looked like they were not just a playoff contender, but a World Series contender. Relief pitching had let them down early in the season, but that was improved with the addition of Trevor Richards and Adam Cimber.

Before the 2021 trade deadline, the Blue Jays traded Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, two top 100 prospects at the time, to the Minnesota Twins for José Berríos. It has turned out to be a good trade.

In 70.1 innings after the trade, Berríos finished with a 3.58 ERA and a 3.28 FIP with a 26.8 K% and a 4.5 BB%. After the 2021 season ended, the Blue Jays extended Berríos to a seven-year, $131 million deal, the second-largest contract in team history behind George Springer’s six-year, $150 million deal.

Berríos didn’t have a good season in 2022, posting a 5.23 ERA and a 4.55 FIP in 172 innings pitched. It seemed like every third start, he’d struggle mightly. However, he’s rebounded the past two season, posting a 3.65 ERA and a 3.99 FIP in 189.2 innings pitched in 2023 and a 3.60 ERA and a 4.72 FIP in 192.1 innings in 2024.

Who’s next

There is one player whom the Blue Jays could regret not extending – Marcus Semien. Signed during the 2020-21 off-season, Semien played one season with the Blue Jays where he slashed .265/.334/.538 with 45 home runs in 724 plate appearances, finishing third in American League MVP voting (the second time he had done that).

The next off-season, he signed with the Texas Rangers and had a 4.4 fWAR, followed by a 6.3 fWAR in 2023. That season, he and the Rangers won the World Series while Semien finished third in American League MVP voting for the third time in his career.

Other than Semien, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are the only two players who have realistically earned an extension. The good news is that there’s still time, as they don’t become free agents until the end of the season, and even then, the Blue Jays will still have the chance to outbid other teams.