Nico Hoerner already making Cubs extension look good

When the Cubs announced that they agreed to terms with second baseman Nico Hoerner on a three-year contract extension on the eve of Opening Day back in March, the deal was regarded as a somewhat surprising one around the league. As noted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco at the time of the deal, it’s unusual for a player to sign an extension that buys out just one free agent year once eligible for arbitration. The deal that Hoerner and the Cubs agreed upon did just that, however: the deal covers the 2024-26 campaigns, buying out Hoerner’s final two years of arbitration and his first year as a free agent for a total guarantee of $35M.

That’s a fairly hefty sum for a player who was making just over $2.5M for the 2023 season after his first trip through arbitration. Hoerner was coming off a strong season as the club’s starting shortstop in 2022, where he accumulated 4.0 fWAR thanks to strong defense at short combined with offense that was just a touch above league average (106 wRC+). Impressive as that season was, there were plenty of questions about whether or not he would be able to replicate his 2022. Hoerner had struggled badly with injuries in 2021, missing three months with forearm, hamstring, and oblique issues. What’s more, the club’s offseason signing of Dansby Swanson pushed Hoerner to second base, where his strong defense would be less valuable. Given those question marks, it was fair to wonder if the Cubs were overvaluing their former first-round pick.

Fortunately for both sides, Hoerner’s 2023 campaign was a major step toward quieting any doubts regarding the decision to extend him. Concerns about Hoerner as an injury-prone player were surely quieted by him following up a 135-game campaign last year by spending just eleven days of the season on the IL with 150 games played and a whopping 688 plate appearances, one more than his 2021 and ’22 seasons combined.

The similar sample sizes demonstrate how consistent Hoerner’s production with the bat has been. After slashing .286/.341/.400 (106 wRC+) in 2021-22, Hoerner’s 2023 season was virtually identical with a slash line of .283/.346/.383 with a wRC+ of 102. Though his power dipped slightly, he made up for it by walking at an improved 7.1% clip while posting a phenomenal 12.1% strikeout rate. Only seven qualified hitters struck out less often than Hoerner in 2023, and of them only Luis Arraez, Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Alex Bregman posted better offensive seasons by measure of wRC+. His 88.6% contact rate was third best in baseball this year, behind only Arraez and Steven Kwan.

Hoerner’s defense has been similarly consistent. His glovework at shortstop last year was strong in 2022, with +10 Defensive Runs Saved per Fielding Bible and +13 Outs Above Average per Statcast. After moving to second this year, however, his defense has received even stronger marks. His +14 DRS in 2023 is the ninth-best figure among all infielders this season, while his +15 OAA ranks eighth among qualified infielders. Only Swanson, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Andres Gimenez posted better marks than Hoerner according to both metrics this year.

In addition to repeating the elite strikeout rate and middle infield defense that made the Cubs want to extend him in the first place, Hoerner’s added another dimension to his game this year by becoming one of the top base stealing threats in the majors. After stealing 20 bases in 2022, the 26-year-old took his baserunning to another level this season by swiping 43 bags, fifth-most in the majors, in just 50 attempts. According to Fangraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning metric, BsR, Hoerner’s 9.7 figure was second best in all of the major leagues behind only rookie sensation Corbin Carroll, who became just the sixth player this century to steal 50 bases in his rookie season.

Taking Hoerner’s defense, contract ability, and baserunning together, his 2023 campaign was worth 4.7 fWAR, tied with Yandy Diaz and Cal Raleigh for the 22nd-best figure in the sport. If Hoerner is able to keep up anything close to this level of production over the life of his extension, a deal that left many scratching their heads at the start of the season will look like an excellent gamble by Chicago’s front office, and Hoerner could find himself in line for a much larger payday following the 2026 season, when he’ll still be just 29 years old.