Pirates Closer Should be D-backs' Top Deadline Target

The Arizona Diamondbacks find themselves in a tricky situation in the standings. They enter play on June 16 just 3.5 games out of a National League playoff spot. General manager Mike Hazen and Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick have begun talking about becoming potential buyers.

If the Diamondbacks can continue their current run, winning nine of their last 13 games, they'll be in that position. While it's too early to say with certainty that's what they'll do, the key area for the team to address is the back end of their bullpen if they do buy.

With Justin Martinez being the fourth Arizona pitcher headed for elbow surgery, and possibly A.J. Puk joining that list, they need someone who can close out games. Shelby Miller has done an admirable job in their absence, but he can't carry this bullpen by himself.

That means the team needs to go out and acquire either a high-leverage arm or a closer. One team that fits the bill as a potential seller is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite having Paul Skenes at the top of their rotation, the Pirates carry one of the most dreadful offenses in baseball. That's led to them being 15 games under .500, and no clear direction in both the short and long term.

Diamondbacks Should Trade for Pirates Closer David Bednar

With the Pirates stuck near the bottom of the National League cellar, Hazen has an opportunity to strike and land their closer, David Bednar. Bednar is 1-5 with a 3.38 ERA and has converted all 10 save opportunities.

What makes Bednar a capable back-end arm is that he carries elite strikeout (34.3%) and walk (6.1%) rates. His 28.3% K-BB% ranks 14th among 182 qualified relievers this season. Arizona's best reliever in that metric is Miller at 15.5%. Ryne Nelson had ranked higher at 19.4%, but he's back in the rotation after the Corbin Burnes injury.

Looking at his season game log, the first concern is that he gives up runs more frequently than you'd like for a closer. On the season, he's been scored upon in nine of 28 outings. He was scored upon in his first three appearances and was sent down to Triple-A. Since being recalled on April 19, he's allowed runs in just six of 25 appearances (24%), which is more in line for a back-end arm.

In his last 25 appearances, Bednar has pitched to a 2.35 ERA and a 1.42 FIP. He's held opposing hitters to a .214/.256/.298 slash line, striking out 36.7% of the hitters he's faced. The expected stats, which take into account quality of contact based on exit velocity and launch angle data, corroborate his performance with a .202 xBA and .337 xSLG.

Acquiring a closer with control beyond this year is tricky, but it's a move that Hazen has done in the past. Two years ago, he made a significant deadline addition with Paul Sewald.

Hazen paid a hefty price, which included two breakout prospects (Ryan Bliss and Dominic Canzone) and a starting infielder (Josh Rojas), but it's hard to argue with the results. Sewald was key in the team's run to the World Series, pitching flawlessly through the National League Championship Series.

Should the Diamondbacks identify Bednar as a key trade target, the next question is what's the necessary cost to acquire him? Fortunately, the Sewald trade gives us a good starting point from which to begin. We can compare the track record of the two pitchers on a near one-to-one basis.