Pirates vs. Nationals Bold Predictions: Paul Skenes Denies Washington

The Pittsburgh Pirates bring the National League Central lead back to PNC Park on Monday, opening a four-game home set against the Washington Nationals after a weekend that saw them take two of three from the Chicago Cubs but squander a five-run lead in Sunday’s finale.

At 9-6, the Pirates hold a slim half-game lead atop the division over the Cincinnati Reds, a position bolstered by sharp starting pitching and a much-improved offense through the season’s first two weeks. However, the taste of Sunday’s early 5-0 blown lead lingers as they return home, where they have played only six games so far.

The Nationals (7-8), hovering near the bottom of a crowded NL East, arrive with a young roster seeking to fast forward their rebuild. They're fresh off an impressive road sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers. Here are three predictions for what unfolds as Pittsburgh tries to lengthen their division lead in front of its home crowd.

1. Somebody besides Lowe, O'Hearn, Cruz and Reynolds will hit a home run.

Through the first 15 games of the season, only four Pirates have reached the seats: second baseman Brandon Lowe (5 HR), outfielder Ryan O’Hearn (3 HR), centerfielder Oneil Cruz (5 HR), and outfielder Bryan Reynolds (3 HR). That means the rest of the Pittsburgh lineup remains homerless entering the Nationals series.

Rookie Konnor Griffin, who has shown flashes of power in limited at-bats, could break through. We know the ability to hit MLB home runs is there, based on his exit velocity numbers and Spring Training power display.

Nick Yorke and Nick Gonzales are also candidates, having made hard contact in recent games without clearing the fence. Yorke, particularly, is scorching hot; he's batting .409 over the last week.

The most polarizing pick is designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. Despite owning the lowest OPS among qualified hitters in the majors to start the year, Ozuna has had several solid swings that suggest a breakout could be near. He has also enjoyed past success against two Washington starters scheduled in the series: Ozuna has two career home runs against Miles Mikolas and one against Jake Irvin. He might seem the most unlikely based on 2026 statitics, but he's argualy the most likely when you look at overall bodies of work.

2. The offense will force a starting pitcher out of the game before the third inning ends.

The Pirates have shown an ability to score early in games, a trend that could spell trouble for a Washington rotation that has two starters struggling out of the gates this season.

Mikolas and Irvin have both struggled significantly through the season’s opening weeks. Mikolas, in particular, was tagged for 11 earned runs in a single start two outings ago against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Given Pittsburgh’s recent history of jumping on opposing pitchers in the first two frames, a quick hook for one of the Nationals’ starters is a reasonable expectation.

If the Pirates load the bases or put up a crooked number on the scoreboard within the first two and a half innings, Washington's rookie manager Blake Butera may have no choice but to go to his bullpen earlier than planned.

3. Paul Skenes allows no runs for the first time this season.

Pirates ace Paul Skenes has followed a clear upward arc since his rocky Opening Day, when he failed to escape the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. In his two most recent starts, he has allowed exactly one earned run in each, settling into a rhythm after the early season jitters. He looks like the Skenes that we know is capable of being the best pitcher in the world.

Facing a Nationals lineup that ranks fourth in MLB in runs scored, Skenes won't have it easy. But this Washington team hasn't faced a pitcher like the Pirates right-hander. My expectation is that he will work at least six innings while keeping Washington off the scoreboard entirely, continuing his strong April. A scoreless start would be Skenes’s first of the season and a continuation of his rebound from the Opening Day struggle.

Key Stats

• Run Preventin' Pirates: 2.72 ERA over last seven days is fifth in MLB
• Wild Washington: 30 BB issued by pitchers over last seven days is third most in MLB
• The Pirates and Nationals have met a total of 663 times. The Pirates lead the series 344-319.