Should the Toronto Blue Jays Extend Matt Chapman?

Matt Chapman, entering 2023 in his age-30 season, has been an elite defender at third base and an above-average hitter. He appears to be an ideal candidate to extend. Also, media reports consistently note how Chapman brings many intangibles to a team, including leadership. However, several red flags should give the Blue Jays pause. Let’s examine the extension question.

The analysis to follow has been organized as follows:

• Batting
• Defence
• Ageing
• Contract estimate

Batting

The first area to consider is hitting. Table 1 shows the four recent 162-game seasons, and the highlights are as follows:

• Concerning BB%, ISO, OBP, wOBA and OPS (except for 2021), Chapman has produced very good numbers.
• On the negative front, Chapman’s K% has risen noticeably after the 2019 campaign.
• On a related note, the percentage of swinging strikeouts has increased from 62% in 2018 to 67% in 2019, 78% in 2021 and back to 67% in 2022.

Other offence areas of note include the following:

• Chapman’s Chase Rate ranked in the 98^th percentile in 2022.
• His wGDP was 1.9 in 2022 and 2021, so he grounded into double plays at a lower rate than the MLB average.
• Regarding baserunning, not including base stealing, Chapman’s UBR was better than the MLB average.

During his career, Chapman has been an above-average hitter (120 wRC+); he posted a 110 wRC+ from 2021-2022. However, Chapman’s reputation as an elite third baseman is primarily because of his glove, not his bat. Let’s take a look at his defence.

Defence

Table 2 summarizes Chapman’s defence metrics for the last four 162-game regular seasons. By the DRS and OAA metrics in 2018, 2019 and 2021, Chapman was among the top third basemen. However, the same stats reveal that the 2022 campaign was not above average. His defensive decline in 2022, as per the metrics, appeared to conflict with the eye test. People remember spectacular plays such as this one. Could the data be incorrect?

Indeed, that is a possibility. However, Mike Petriello of MLB.com addressed the Chapman matter last year. His explanation, which begins at the 16:55 mark of this video, suggests that there were occasions when Chapman fielded a ball, perhaps spectacularly, but did not complete the play due to hesitation, failing to get the ball out of the glove, etc. Maybe people forgot these plays, but the metrics captured Chapman’s botched efforts. Furthermore, Chapman noted that he “didn’t win a Gold Glove, so I needed to work on my defence, too.”

Let’s dig into more detailed OAA numbers. Accordingly, I present Table 3: an examination of Chapman’s OAA stats by chance difficulty for the noted seasons. One area where Chapman’s 2022 lagged behind the previous two campaigns is the more routine plays (80% to 95% success rate for the average fielder). If Chapman had replicated 2019’s +8 OAA on the 80% to 95% average success rate, then his 2022 OAA total would rise to +7 OAA, which would be a tie for ninth-best among third basemen. That is not elite.

Also, Steamer projects a 3.5 fWAR for Chapman; Table 4 has the details. In 2021, the Fielding Runs component of fWAR was 14.1, 2.5 in 2022. Regarding 2023, Steamer projects a Fielding-Runs improvement to 3.4. Hence, Steamer estimates that Chapman will perform better in the field in 2023 than in 2022 but not nearly as well as in the campaigns before 2022.

Suppose Chapman returns to his elite performance level in 2023. Given that a potential contract extension is the focus of this article, are there warning signs that would make a Chapman extension worrisome? The answer is yes.

Ageing

One of the concerns regarding a Chapman contract extension is what to expect as he ages.

Concerning signs of physical decline, Chapman did not show a drop in arm strength In 2022 and 2021; the average velocity of his throws was 87.3 mph and 87.0 mph in 2022 and 2021, respectively (his 2022 maximum was 89.5 mph). The MLB average for third basemen was 85.7 mph in 2022 and 84.4 in 2021. Nolan Arenado, one of the premier defenders at third base, displayed a tick below-average arm strength in 2022 (85.1 mph, his maximum was 89.2 mph).

Regarding foot speed (quickness). Table 5 shows that Chapman was quicker in 2022 than in 2021 (particularly in the first few steps (of 5 to 10 feet). Arenado was a bit slower compared to Chapman.

However, 2022 was Chapman’s age-29 season. Although he has not shown noticeable signs of physical decline to date, it does not mean there is not a sizeable ageing risk in the future. History indicates that we should expect a decline in Chapman’s batting in his 30s. For example, The Hardball Times examined the ageing curve regarding changes in ISO, BB%, K% and BABIP.

Of course, any ageing curve is constructed from averages, and Chapman may be an exception. He may age more gradually; he may not. Hence, the ageing risk is a factor to consider in a contract extension that includes seasons when players are in their 30s.

Regarding defence, let’s look at the number of starts at third base by age. Consider Table 6, which denotes the number of times a player started at least 120 games at a given infield position by age.

Table 6 shows a drop-off in the frequency of third basemen who started at least 120 games a season as they progressed through their 30s. For the 2000-2022 period, there were 16 times that a 31-year-old third baseman started at least 120 games; only seven times did a 35-year-old start a minimum of 120 games at the hot corner. In percentage terms, 5% of the 295 times a player started at least 120 games in a season at third were 31 years old, just 2% of the times at age 35. Matt Chapman will be 31 in 2024 and 35 at the end of a six-year extension (2023 to 2028).

I looked more closely at elite third-base defenders from 2002-2022. The criteria were as follows:

• The player was well-above average defensively at age 30.
• They turned 35 years of age by 2022.
• DRS data is available for their age 30 season and beyond.

For the four players who met the criteria outlined above, please refer to Table 7. Of those third basemen, only Scott Rolen posted positive DRS well above zero each season. Hence, it is rare for a third baseman to continue excelling defensively during their age-31 to 35 seasons.

In summary, age will be a headwind for Chapman; the timing and extent of the decline in season-to-season performance are yet to be determined.

Contract Extension

The Athletic’s Tim Britton wrote an article (subscription required), published on March 14, in which he estimated a six-year USD 126 million extension for Chapman. The deal comprises the USD 12 million salary owed under Chapman’s current contract for 2023 and five years with a USD 23 million AAV. Yes, 12 + 5 x 23 equals 127, not 126. So, let’s go with a six-year, USD 127 million as the reference point.

Table 8 shows the details of my contract estimate. The projection incorporates the following elements:

• Dan Szymborski’s 2024 USD/fWAR estimate
• An USD/fWAR inflator (3%)
• The ageing reduction number (0.5 fWAR per year for ages 31 to 37)
• An USD/fWAR adjustment to address the non-linearity of USD/fWAR for players who generate an fWAR of 2 or lower

The starting point is Steamer’s projected 3.5 fWAR for Chapman for the 2023 campaign. Table 9 shows my valuation (Scenario 1), Britton’s estimate (Scenario 2), and a more optimistic projection (Scenario 3). Please note that I inserted a 3.9 fWAR for the 2024 season in Scenario 2 to reach Britton’s USD 127 million figure. In Scenario 3, I increased Scenario 2’s 2024 fWAR to 4.4.

Suppose Britton’s contract estimate is the market price for a six-year deal for Chapman. Should the Blue Jays sign Chapman to those terms? My answer is no for the following reasons:

• I believe Chapman will generate a total fWAR number more in line with a USD 91 million deal than a USD 127 million contract.
• Chapman’s agent is Scott Boras, who will likely strongly encourage Chapman to enter free agency and not sign an extension. Therefore, I think it unlikely that Chapman will sign an extension now, nor do I believe he will sign a below-market contract.
• The rarity of a third baseman starting at least 120 games at the hot corner after age 30 is a risk to consider.
• Chapman’s bat was above average during the 2021 and 2022 seasons (110 wRC+), but that is not elite enough to be a regular DH. His value will be as Toronto’s everyday third baseman.
• It is sub-optimal to commit such a large sum to a player who will likely soon become a 3.0 fWAR player. Finding a 3.0 fWAR position player is easier than finding a 5.0 fWAR player. Therefore, committing more dollars to the more talented player makes sense because the 5.0 fWAR player is more scarce.
• Furthermore, the Blue Jays may have some internal options in 2024, such as Addison Barger, whom JFtC’s Shaun Doyle noted as a possible Chapman replacement, and Orelvis Martinez.
• Certainly, Barger and Martinez are unproven at the MLB level. Hence, Santiago Espinal could be a short-term solution in 2024. He likely would not hit like Chapman, but his defence at third (+4 OAA in 275 chances, +7 DRS in 642 innings) is very good.
• A USD 127 million contract with Chapman places some financial constraints on Toronto if they want to sign Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Alek Manoah to long-term deals.

The Last Word

Chapman is a very good third baseman who also adds valuable intangibles. He will likely be a pivotal contributor to the 2023 Blue Jays in their quest to win the World Series. However, Chapman will be in his mid-thirties during the term of an extension, a period where history strongly indicates a decline in performance and playing time. As much as I like Chapman, the Blue Jays should elect to pass on a fair-market-value contract with him.