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The Nationals Have Not Taken the Step Forward They Needed To

Originally posted on Just Baseball | Last updated Sep 8, 2025 4:16 PM ET

Most sports fans are all too familiar with rebuilds. Hell, some fans only know rebuilds. Trade away production for younger talent in hopes of collecting enough for your next wave to make the playoffs, then repeat.

Washington’s rebuild happened in phases. Bryce Harper walked in the 2018-19 offseason. Then, after the Nationals won the World Series in 2019, more core players started leaving. Max Scherzer and Trea Turner were traded not long after, and the final nail was put in the coffin when Juan Soto was moved to San Diego in 2022.

The 2023 and 2024 seasons, both 71-win campaigns, were transitional years where newly acquired prospects started to show up and top prospects were added via the draft. Those years offered a chance for youngsters to get through their learning curves and fringe players to essentially try out.

This season was supposed to be a step forward. While still not expected to be a playoff contender, the Washington Nationals needed to show signs that their ship was headed in the right direction. Instead, their manager and GM were fired, and the team is currently sitting at 58-84.

Does this mean the rebuild was a failure? Of course not. The jury is still out and should be for another couple of seasons. But, to see the team take a step back in what feels like an important season in their life cycle is worth discussion.

Pitching Is Still a Problem

The Nationals have had to do a lot of work to rebuild their farm system over the past few seasons. The system was particularly bare in the pitching department, especially since injuries stunted Cade Cavalli’s development.

Lefty Mitchell Parker looked promising across 29 starts last season, pitching to a 4.29 ERA and 3.85 FIP, but has taken a step back this season. Fewer strikeouts, more walks, and far too much loud contact to give me much hope for the future. The same can be said for Jake Irvin, who went from being a decent back-end option to potentially being out of consideration for the rotation.

DJ Herz, whom Washington acquired for Jeimer Candelario, lost the 2025 season to injury. He flashed a ton of upside last YEAR and couldn’t build off it, which could set him back going into next year. Cavalli is now 27 years old and has pitched a total of 34 innings in his career because of injury. Few bright spots have emerged all season.

The most important piece of the rotation is MacKenzie Gore. The lefty was acquired in the Juan Soto deal to be the ace of this staff, but he has not quite gotten there. Don’t get me wrong, Gore’s still a very productive pitcher, but he has not been able to truly string together the consistency and dependability the Nationals have needed.

We saw stretches as a prospect where Gore essentially lost the ability to pitch, and while those stretches have not been as drastic recently, they are still there. The control has improved as he has developed, but his command is iffy, leaving too many hittable pitches catching the heart of the zone. He’ll need to figure it out quickly because Washington only has two more years of control before he hits free agency.

Not only has the rotation been a mess, but the bullpen is far from reliable. Jose Ferrer has popped and established himself as a piece going forward. Cole Henry has done enough to be given a spot next season, as well. Once you get past those two, it’s bleak. We’re talking about unestablished arms with no control who lack the stuff to be effectively wild. A mix of arms who are best suited to be Triple-A depth.

Luckily, bullpens can be fixed relatively quickly. Maybe a couple of the less inspiring starters shift to the bullpen and find success, or the Nats pay a couple of veterans to help shore up the high-leverage innings.

Either way, however, the pitching in this organization has failed. Failed to the point of change not only on the roster, but perhaps on the development or coaching staff.

The Offensive Core’s Highs and Lows

On a more positive note, the offense has a few pieces that have locked themselves into the future. James Wood has superstar talent, and at only 22, he has put together a fantastic second year. Slashing .255/.352/.466 with 27 home runs and a 125 wRC+ is more than you could have asked for.

He’s going to continue to grow with more time on task, and I’m willing to bet he’ll represent the Nationals at the All-Star Game a number of times. The power is absolutely legit, and his great eye for the zone has helped balance out the swing-and-miss concerns. I think he has the ability to be a great all-around hitter as he gets older, as well.

Via Baseball Savant

Look at Wood’s spray chart from this season. Truly a thing of beauty. Massive power to all fields is not common, and neither is Wood’s gifted ability. Washington has found their star, and now they need to surround him with complementary pieces.

CJ Abrams has also continued his steady improvement, now in his third full season. Keep in mind, Abrams is only 24 years old and is currently having the best season of his career, slashing .265/.328/.446, good for a 114 wRC+, with 17 home runs and 28 steals. Offensively, Abrams is becoming a great complement to Woods, but his defense is a problem.

I think a move off short is needed for Abrams. The range is a problem, and his arm is troubling. Most likely, you would have to move him to second or the outfield, where the Padres tried him a few times. Moving him to second would likely mean Luis Garcia Jr. is on another team, which feels like the right move both for the Nationals and Garcia.

Washington also has one of the game’s more underrated rookies in Daylen Lile. With a simple, yet beautiful swing that is running an 84.2% contact rate, he should give the Nationals a contact-oriented hitter to help balance their lineup.

The Nationals have also had a few hitters struggle early in their careers. Dylan Crews has battled injuries, which plays a part in this, but a .199/.276/.336 slash is far from what was expected. Long term, I still see Crews as a foundational piece, but last season (in the minors and majors) and this season have not gone as planned.

Like Herz, Crews essentially lost what would have been a crucial development year. The first full season in the majors is an important one, and now that has been delayed for Crews, who’s not the only former first-rounder struggling.

Brady House, the Nationals’ 2021 11th overall selection, bounced back to start the season in Triple-A. His first stint in 2024 was ugly, but he looked much more comfortable tapping into power, which earned him a call-up.

Yet, since joining the Nationals, House has only three home runs in 59 games, paired with a .239/.251/.329 slash and 56 wRC+. He’s swinging at everything, making it easy for pitchers to attack him and get him to chase. I’m sure it will improve over time, but it’s hardly what you want to see from one of your top prospects.

Help on the Way?

The natural next step in a rebuild is to look towards the farm system and see if any prospects could help as soon as next season. Well, I have bad news for you. Most outlets have ranked the Nationals’ farm system somewhere in the 20-25 range, with the system’s lack of depth sinking their ranking.

Two of the team’s top prospects, pitchers Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana, could help the Nationals at some point. Both are only 21 years old and come with electric stuff that will give Washington more strikeout upside.

They are both the type of pitcher that catches your eye immediately. Each is massive at 6-foot-6, with breaking balls that simply look different and fastballs with characteristics that will work at the major league level.

Unfortunately, Sykora just underwent Tommy John surgery, delaying his development and timeline. Susana, on the other hand, could be in Washington at some point next season. His fastball sits in the upper 90s and tops 100 mph often. The slider is a true weapon with goofy levels of movement, but his command might hold him back.

Outside of Susana, the Nationals do not have anyone else in their top 10 expected to debut in 2026. Most top 10 lists only have one Nationals prospect, shortstop Seaver King, over 21 years of age. There’s a chance Yohandy Morales (top 20) could help the team, but there’s still development needed. I personally am high on lefty starter Jake Bennett, but, and stop me if you heard this before, an injury has limited him this season.

Long story short, the Nationals are not going to get back on track next season by relying on their farm system. Their top prospects are mostly multiple years away, and in order to avoid another disappointing season, Washington will need development from their current players while also bringing in reinforcements from the outside.

Final Thoughts

Like I said before, the rebuild is not a failure. At least not yet. With a new GM and manager, we will have to see what direction and what changes are made before forming an educated opinion. But, without a doubt, the 2025 season has been a step backward for the Nationals.

Even with Wood and Abrams playing well, the Nationals have not had enough players improve or any pop-up prospect breakouts. There simply needs to be more talent added to this team. The scary part is their timeline isn’t as wide open as you would think. Gore and Abrams are closer to free agency than you would like.

This offseason will be important. Lock up young players, add from the outside, and show the fans that Washington is not far from returning to October baseball.

This article first appeared on Just Baseball and was syndicated with permission.

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