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These Numbers Show Blue Jays Can Eliminate Yankees in Game 3 of the ALDS

Originally posted on Toronto Blue Jays on SI
By JD Andress | Last updated Oct 6, 2025 7:00 PM ET

The Toronto Blue Jays had a bye in the first round of the playoffs after finishing with the best record and the AL East division title in hand. They are now looking to advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2016 after getting out to a 2-0 lead over the New York Yankees.

The Blue Jays are one win away after dominating the Yankees. They beat them both games with offensive outbursts, outscoring New York 23-8 through the two games. Toronto will now hit the road in hopes of clinching the series.

Below are the numbers to know in this decisive Game 3 matchup between Shane Bieber and Carlos Rodon.

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The Blue Jays' offense has been lethal so far this series, striking for 23 runs in two games. Both of those were catastrophic failures by the Yankees' starting pitching, and now Toronto gets to face Rodon, whom the big boppers in the lineup have historically hit well against.

As a team, they have an OPS (.752) against him, which is 33 points higher than the league average for the 2025 season (.719). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 10-for-17 against him with three doubles and a home run. Alejandro Kirk is 3-for-11 with three doubles. And George Springer has hit two home runs against him.

In a series where the Blue Jays have been able to do damage at the plate, continuing that trend against someone they have historically found success against will be key.

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Even if the Blue Jays aren't able to get an extra-base hit against Rodon like they have in the past, they have walked 13 times against him compared to 30 strikeouts. Guerrero and Springer alone have combined for eight of them, while Toronto's first baseman has yet to strikeout against him in 17 at-bats.

Working deep counts, taking free passes and getting to a struggling and depleted Yankees bullpen could yield even better results than swinging for the fence early against Rodon. One thing is sure, though; the Blue Jays will have a clear path to another offensive outburst.

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Bieber will be on the mound against New York and is perhaps one of the best arms to face them right now. Minus a late-inning surge in Game 2, the Yankees have failed to find consistent success at the plate.

In 52 at-bats, Bieber has allowed just three walks to New York hitters while striking them out 13 times. Even likely AL MVP winner Aaron Judge has had trouble hitting off Bieber, holding a career .077 average in 13 at-bats. While the one hit was a home run, he has struck out eight times against him.

The numbers indicate a clear path to success for the Blue Jays in this Game 3 matchup. Pairing their offensive surge at the plate with a pitcher on the mound who the Yankees have historically struggled against, and it could spell good things for their ball club.