What’s Going On With the Dodgers?

The Los Angeles Dodgers have played some underwhelming baseball throughout the summer. After setting lofty expectations for themselves, the reigning World Series champions find themselves in a fight for the NL West and the fourth-best record in the National League. This despite starting the season 56-32, the best record in baseball.

Since July 4, Los Angeles is 26-33. The team that fans accused of “ruining baseball” last winter has played sub-.500 ball for over two months. This record is the seventh-worst in the NL, worse than that of teams like the Marlins, White Sox and Athletics. It’s the worst 59-game stretch for the Dodgers since the end of the 2017 regular season into the 2018 season.

So, how did we get here? How did a perceived superteam ahead of the season, fresh off a championship, turn into mediocrity over a two-month span? The answers are not what you would expect.

Stats, records, and rankings updated prior to games on September 13.

Offensive Drought

For a team that touts multiple MVP candidates and a band of All-Stars top-to-bottom, the Dodgers’ offense hasn’t been the weapon it was advertised to be. Since Independence Day, they have a below-average 99 wRC+, down from the league-leading 120 they had as of July 3.

Many team-wide batted ball metrics reflect this drop in offense. Before their struggles started, the Dodgers were pulling the ball in the air at a 20.4% rate, the third-highest in baseball. Since then, their 19.3% rate ranks 14th.

The team is also hitting 3% fewer line drives and replacing them with 3% more groundballs, a recipe for fewer hits and more outs. It explains why their team-wide BABIP has gone from .298 to .276.

Another culprit of this decline in offense has been the Dodgers’ decreasing ability to hit fastballs. They’ve gone from one of the best fastball-hitting teams in the majors to one of the worst. Before this span, they hit .282 and slugged .484 with a .512 RV/100 (per Baseball Savant) against all fastballs. Each of those numbers ranked top five in the league.

Since this span began, their .248 batting average against fastballs ranks tied for 23rd, their .424 slugging percentage ranks 20th, and their -.288 RV/100 ranks 26th. Their whiff rate against fastballs has also gone from 19.4% to 21.4%, 15th to 26th.

Throughout this span, the Dodgers have given 45% of their plate appearances, or 1,009 of them, to hitters with a 90 wRC+ or lower.

Teoscar Hernández, with his 80 wRC+, has been given 200 of them. Over this span, Hernández has raised his strikeout rate by 6% and his pull rate on fly balls has been cut in half from 20% to 9.8%.

Along with Hernández, Michael Conforto has continued his season-long struggles. Additionally, guys like Andy Pages, Enrique Hernandez and Hyeseong Kim have contributed below-average-to-abysmal numbers at the plate.

No Relief to the Rescue