Will Drake Baldwin Run Away With The NL Rookie Of The Year?

Rank among catchers with a minimum of 300 plate appearances

Among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, Baldwin ranks near the top in several key offensive categories. In fact, there is only one other catcher who ranks within the top seven of each of these categories: Will Smith of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

What’s more impressive is that the underlying data suggests his production could be even better. His xBA (.284), xSLG (.490), and xwOBA (.365) all outpace his actual lines, and he grades in the 80th percentile or better across nearly every major offensive metric.

Defensively, Baldwin is holding his own. He sits in the 72nd percentile in blocks above average and the 67th in framing, both solid marks for a rookie whose bat has become his calling card.

The rookie season Drake Baldwin is putting together is certainly not going unnoticed. He has consistently found himself among the top three in NL Rookie of the Year odds and looks to secure the award with a strong September.

The Contenders for the 2025 NL ROY

This year’s National League Rookie of the Year race has narrowed to three true contenders: Drake Baldwin, Cade Horton, and Isaac Collins.

Cade Horton, the Cubs’ rookie right-hander, suffered a slow start to his campaign. However his second half has been sensational, posting a 0.77 ERA and 0.81 WHIP across 47 innings. For the year, he carries a 9-4 record with a 2.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 87 strikeouts across 103.2 innings.

Unlike Baldwin, Horton’s underlying data points to some possible regression. His xERA (3.99) sits more than a full run higher than his actual mark, and both his hard-hit and barrel rates fall below league average.

Still, baseball isn’t decided by expected stats, it’s about results. Horton’s results since the All-Star break have been outstanding, putting him firmly in the Rookie of the Year race.

Isaac Collins, meanwhile, has been a versatile weapon for the Brewers. He’s slashed .275/.373/.433 with a .805 OPS and 128 wRC+ while taking at-bats at every spot in the order this season. His defensive metrics show both strengths and weaknesses, but his consistency at the plate has made him a fixture on the league’s best team.

Like Horton, Collins’ underlying metrics suggest he may be playing a bit over his expected numbers. His xBA (.255) and xSLG (.366) trail his current production, and his barrel rate (19th percentile) and hard-hit rate (34th percentile) don’t typically support long-term success.

Even so, what Collins has produced on the field has been impressive, and he absolutely deserves recognition as one of the National League’s top rookies.

Why Baldwin Deserves It

Here’s the difference: Baldwin has produced at an elite level while playing catcher, one of the most demanding positions in the game. He hasn’t just matched or out-paced his fellow rookies’ offensive numbers, he’s done it while carrying the physical workload of the catcher position.

Unlike Horton and Collins, Baldwin’s expected stats actually suggest there’s more in the tank. If anything, he’s been slightly underperforming relative to his quality of contact. That’s a promising sign for what should be a strong September finish.

Now with Sean Murphy on the IL for the rest of the season, the majority of catching duties will fall on Baldwin once again. That should only make him more valuable down the stretch.

It’s also worth noting how rare Baldwin’s rookie season is. The last catcher to win Rookie of the Year in either league was Buster Posey in 2010. Before him, only Geovany Soto (2008) and Mike Piazza (1993) had accomplished the feat in recent decades. Catchers simply don’t come up and win this award. It takes a special season.

Baldwin is having that kind of season. From Opening Day, he’s handled unexpected responsibilities, established himself as one of the best rookie bats in the league, and quickly become a cornerstone for Atlanta’s future.

The Braves may not be in October this year, but Baldwin has given fans a glimpse of what’s ahead. He deserves to be recognized as the National League Rookie of the Year.