Yankees Ace is the Biggest Mystery of 2026

Cole then underwent Tommy John surgery last March and missed all of 2025. In a season where the Yankees won 94 games, his presence was missed. The Yankees missed out on winning the American League East by the tiniest of margins, and in the postseason, a one-two punch of Max Fried and Carlos Rodon lacked the flair that Cole and Fried could have had.

Maybe if Cole is healthy, the Yankees win the division, and it's the Toronto Blue Jays who travel on the road to Yankee Stadium. The entire complexion of that series could have changed.

Barring any more injuries to their starters, the top of the rotation will finally see Fried and Cole lead the way in 2026. It will just have to wait, because the ace won't be ready for Opening Day. A late spring and summer reunion is more likely.

Cole's Potential Outcomes

One of the big questions of the season will be what Cole looks like when he does return. It's hard to predict how a starter will come out swinging when he knocks the rust off that elbow and starts getting in games.

The two possible outcomes for pitchers coming off TJ are Justin Verlander in 2022 and Spencer Strider last year. Both have had huge successes in their career, but their returns went in completely opposite directions.

In the case of Verlander, he was so good that he won the Cy Young in his return. In 175 innings, Verlander pitched to a 1.75 ERA and accumulated a 6.1 WAR, according to Fangraphs. The most astonishing thing about Verlander was how much time he missed.

He tossed 223 innings in 2019 like an old-school workhorse. He then pitched 6 innings during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and missed 2021 entirely. It was two full seasons without pitching, and he pitched to a sub-two ERA, hardly missing a beat, and he even threw a no-hitter on top of that.

In Strider's return from Tommy John, he went in the complete opposite direction. His last full season was in 2023. He threw 186.2 innings, and the signs that something was off were there since his ERA ballooned a full run from 2.67 the year before to 3.86.

In 2024, he pitched only nine innings before finally going down, but returned a year later. His timeline was quicker than Verlander's, but in his return, his velocity was down, and in 125.1 innings, he posted a 4.45 ERA.

Somewhere in the Middle?

There isn't a rhyme or reason as to what a pitcher will look like in that first year back from Tommy John. Cole will be older than Strider but younger than Verlander.

If Cole were to follow the projections, he would probably land somewhere in the middle of Strider and Verlander. In a world where Tarik Skubal rules the land, it's unlikely that Cole would even have a shot at the Cy Young award if he mimics Verlander's 2022, but if one were to place a bet on a realistic outcome, just look no further than the Steamer projections on Fangraphs.

Steamer pegs Cole for 134 innings. It projects him to pitch to a 3.99 ERA and be a 2 WAR player as well. That sounds realistic.

Of course, the big question won't be how Cole looks in the regular season. In Yankee Land, it's October where the important stories are written. What the Yankees are hoping most for is that Cole knocks the rust off in those Summer and early fall months so he and Fried can lead the rotation by the time October rolls around.

In 12 postseason games with the Yankees, he has a 2.93 ERA. Cole has lived up to his end of the bargain thus far, and if the Yankees will make any noise in October, that's the pitcher they'll need to lead them.

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