Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix prediction, picks, odds for UFC 316

Check out my Bautista vs. Mix prediction for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.

Here’s my Bautista vs. Mix prediction for tonight.

Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix Odds

Bautista vs. Mix Pick

Former Bellator Bantamweight champion Patchy Mix will make his UFC debut on Saturday. With a 20-1 career record, he could be in line for a quick title shot in arguably the sport’s deepest division.

Mix is bigger than Mario Bautista (2″ taller, 1″ reach advantage) and the better grappler in the matchup. Still, Bautista is the better striker and offers superior cardio in the second and third rounds.

Mix has finished 15 of his 20 career wins (13 by submission) but recently earned a controversial split decision over Magomed Magomedov for the Bellator title; more than 80% of fans thought Magomedov won the first four rounds.

Moreover, my concern with Mix has always been his gas tank. He’s a powerful athlete, but needs a submission or extended control time to impose his style effectively and justify his pricetag.

Bautista is an excellent scrambler, with a seemingly bottomless gas tank. I’d expect him to get taken down early, but to work his way back into the fight and take over with output down the stretch.

The longer that Bautista can stay upright, the better his chances of winning this matchup.

I projected his pre-fight moneyline at +122; bet that down to +135, and consider adding more live after Round 1.

Additionally, I project value on Bautista to win by decision (projected +232, listed +260), which will be on my round robin tickets.

Bautista vs. Mix Predictions

Picks:

• Mario Bautista (+160, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +135)
• Mario Bautista Live after Round 1