Houston Rockets Pose Both High Ceiling and Low Floor

Just days ago, ESPN's NBA insiders recently projected the Houston Rockets to finish second in the Western Conference with a 54-28 record. This would make it back-to-back seasons they crack 50 wins and clinch the No. 2 seed in a loaded West, which would be another incredible feat.

Last heading into last season, almost no one would have expected the Rockets to make the leap from 41-41 to 52-30. They went from missing the Play-In Tournament to beating out title contenders like the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers in the standings. The only team standing in their way, last season and seemingly this year, has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.

With all-time great Kevin Durant now the superstar in Houston, supplemented by a young core of Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson and more, the Rockets should be better on paper. However, nothing is guaranteed, especially in a conference with nearly 10 playoff contenders.

It's tough for a young team to continue and build on success, which is why Houston acquired veterans such as Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela. Even still, though, teams like the Nuggets, Lakers, and Minnesota Timberwolves pose as legitimate threats to the Rockets' goal of finishing toward the top of the West once again.

The ceiling for this team is a championship, which isn't up for much debate. Assuming players like Sengun, Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr. take yet another leap, Durant would have enough help for ring No. 3. However, Houston also has a lower floor than most due to multiple circumstances.

First off, Durant hasn't been on a Conference Finals team since his time with the Golden State Warriors. While the Rockets are different than his Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns teams of the last few years, he has yet to prove that a team with him at the helm can win since the end of the previous decade.

The West is also extremely volatile. The Rockets, having one of the younger cores in the conference, are more subject to falling behind than a team like Denver or Los Angeles, which have proven veterans.

It's important to manage expectations. Houston fans are excited for year one of the Durant experiment, but his team could live up to expectations or flounder. Last season, the West's Play-In Tournament was decided on the last day of the regular season, and the same could happen in 2026. The Rockets, along with many other teams, could be in jeopardy of a top-six seed.