Keon Ellis In-Season Extension Outlook, Historical Comparisons

A Few Recent (Mostly Distinguishable) Examples 

Below is a look at all veteran extensions over the last four seasons:

The age gap between most of these players and Ellis, who will be 26 when he becomes extension eligible, is noticeable, and shows the rarity of young veteran extension eligible players. 

First-round picks are typically under team control for at least four and up to nine seasons if everything works out. This is more rare and less clear for second-round or undrafted players who have worked their way to a standard contract, carved out a role, and became extension eligible, which is the case for Ellis. 

Looking beyond age, these extensions can be broken into two groups: those signed based on a max of 140% of the average player’s salary (the “Average Salary Extension”), and those signed based on a max of 140% of that individual player’s previous salary. 

Essentially, players on below-average salaries and have played their way into significant money work from the Average Salary Extension to correct their value. Conversely, players on above-average salaries work off of their own prior salary. These higher-earning players are distinguishable from Ellis. Quick notes on each: 

Ball extended after knee issues nearly ended his career. Ingram was a top pick and has been an All-Star. Holiday was (i) much older, (ii) coming off a championship, and (iii) paid nearly 28% when he extended. Olynyk was reasonably paid and locked in more years at that same rate as he entered his mid-30s. Conley secured several more years into his late 30s. Turner renegotiated and extended (a rare maneuver) to avoid free agency in exchange for $60M in new money. 

None of these situations are similar to Ellis’s, and their max figures were very different. So, Scott Perry and Mark Bartelstein will probably not use them when negotiations pick back up. 

Average Salary Extensions will Guide Negotiations

Alex Caruso, Naz Reid, and Dorian Finney-Smith will be the reference points when talks resume. All began as fringe roster players who played themselves into roles, and cashed in while on their below-league-average salaries, agreeing to Average Salary Extensions. 

Caruso was extended off his previous 4 year, $36M contract. Since his $9.8M salary was below the average salary, he extended at the Average Salary Extension. This extension has already aged very well for OKC. 

Finney-Smith signed an Average Salary Extension in 2022 when he made just $4M. Extending Finney-Smith at this number was similarly good business. He was integral to several good Dallas teams and was traded for value twice while on the contract, so the league clearly valued him at that price.

Reid’s 2023 extension is particularly comparable to Ellis’s situation. While Caruso and Finney-Smith had each played a few seasons before extending, Reid extended at just 24 years old off a standard contract (converted from a two-way), having logged just one full NBA season before extending. Like Finney-Smith, though, Reid received a Player Option in his fourth year. 

Reid’s extension also shows timing uniquely applicable to veteran extensions. He signed on June 25 - days before free agency began. Ellis will similarly be able to extend until June 30, giving the parties ample time to land on a fair value so (depending on the cap landscape) Ellis does not have to test UFA, and the Kings do not have to risk losing him for nothing. 

Importantly, Caruso, Reid, and Finney-Smith all signed for the full Average Salary Extension. The value was not merely the max figure their agents opened at and worked down from - it was the end result. Their teams could not (or did not try to) bring them down off the max. 

For Sacramento’s negotiating purposes, it is suboptimal that there are several fair reference points at the Average Salary Extension, with Finney-Smith and Reid even receiving POs. Sacramento can point to Caruso and Finney-Smith’s additional years of service before signing to try to bring the value down, but there is not much else they can lean on aside from pointing to how barren free agency could be. The cap space squeeze could be real, but Caruso, Finney-Smith and Reid show that it will take serious work to get off the max. 

With this in mind, there is a chance Ellis, currently coming off the bench and averaging 5.5/1/0.5 in 12 MPG through two games this preseason, does not play himself into a Caruso/Reid/Finney-Smith extension negotiation by February. 

Preseason in any form is a small sample size - even more so with the two game sample above - but it is concerning that Ellis appears to be behind new acquisitions Dennis Schroder and Nique Clifford and incumbents Zach LaVine, Malik Monk, and DeMar DeRozan in the backcourt. The Keegan Murray injury may open up some opportunity, but there might just not be enough backcourt minutes for everyone. 

Again, as Hoop Venue put it last season, Ellis is “the type of complementary player teams dream of.” Here’s hoping that the organization realizes this and Doug Christie gives Ellis a chance to play himself into a compelling extension negotiation in February.