NBA Odds See Detroit Pistons' Jaden Ivey as Dark-Horse MIP Candidate

Cunningham was a finalist for MIP last season with career-bests in points per game (26), assists per game (nine) and True Shooting Percentage (56%). Ivey isn’t likely to eclipse those numbers while playing with Cunningham, but his statistics over his 30-game sample were quite impressive in their own right.

Over his abbreviated 2024-25 season, Ivey averaged a career-high 17.6 points per game and matched his backcourt mate with a 56% True Shooting Percentage. His career-best TS% was buoyed up by a career-best 40% from 3-point range. 

The skepticism in the odds surrounding Ivey’s MIP case likely has the “rust factor” baked in, meaning oddsmakers are possibly anticipating a bit of a ramp-up period before Ivey returns to his full self. According to DraftKings odds, Ivey sits at +5000 to win the Most Improved Player Award–+5000 means a $100 wager would win $5,000 in profit–and that would certainly make him a longshot

It is tough to argue against the fact that Ivey is walking into the best mix of team situation and individual opportunity, in terms of all the top MIP candidates. Ivey sits 11th in the aforementioned odds. There is an interesting mix of young talent ahead of him, and below is the top five in the odds per DraftKings:

Denji Avidja | +1400

Andrew Nembhard | +1400

Ausar Thompson | +1800

Amen Thompson | +2000

Bennedict Mathurin | +2200

Scoot Henderson | +2500

Josh Giddey | +2500

Avidja had a breakout season and now enters as the on-court leader of a Portland Trail Blazers squad that had an offseason overhaul committed to improving the defense and bringing back a franchise legend in Damian Lillard.

Portland is in an absolutely loaded Western Conference and there is no guarantee that they will settle in nicely among the Play-In contenders. Avidja’s numbers being superior to last season is also no guarantee when you consider the addition of Jrue Holiday and Portland’s commitment to the development of franchisee point guard Scoot Henderson.

Nembhard will no doubt be counted on to have increased responsibility with superstar point guard Tyrese Haliburton out for the entire 2025-26. Despite this, it is fair to wonder just how much he can ramp up his production.

Nembhard averaged 10 points and 5 assists per game last season and those numbers only went up to 11 points and 6 assists in games without Haliburton last season per StatMuse. His teammate Bennedict Mathurin seems more primed for a breakout, with his scoring outbursts likely more welcomed for the shorthanded Pacers.

Ivey’s teammate, Ausar Thompson, is an intriguing candidate, as is his brother, Amen, of the absolutely loaded Houston Rockets. The Thompson twins both enter the season as defensive aces for playoff-bound teams. And both Thompsons possess well-rounded skill sets sans shooting. A slight uptick in production from 3-point range would see either Thompson be a great candidate for the MIP award. But this brings me back to Ivey. 

The argument for Ivey being MIP would seemingly be availability. 

If we assume that Ivey’s jump to a 40% 3-point shooter last season was legit, an increase in 3-point attempt rate would help increase his scoring average. And with Ivey looking back to 100% health-wise in recent videos, there is no reason to assume he won’t eventually get his free throw rate (number of FTs per FGA) back up as well.

Ivey’s rookie free throw rate of 36% was great, and getting to the line often was something that differentiated his game from Cunningham's. Draining shots from deep and attacking closeouts will be a major part of his season. Ivey’s skillset returning to a team that finished in the top-10 in defensive efficiency and top-14 in offensive efficiency, could provide enough of a scoring boost that results in a 50+ win season, making him an intriguing darkhorse for the 2025-26 NBA MIP.