It's the most wonderful time of the year right now for NBA fans (except for those of the Lakers). The long regular season is over. The playoff matchups are set. "DNP-Load Management" is no longer a thing. Hell, we might even get to see the Warriors play hard for multiple games in a row.
Speaking of which, we all know that the Warriors are heavily favored to win the title again, but that's not why we love the playoffs. We love the playoffs because of the storylines. Last spring LeBron James went on a historic run — I'd argue that his 19-game performance from the first round to Game 1 of the Finals was the finest stretch of basketball any human has ever played — but the great thing about the playoffs is that LeBron's run wasn't the only awesome storyline. You had Jayson Tatum and a bunch of young Celtics taking their games to levels we weren't expecting. You had James Harden and Chris Paul giving the Warriors the fight of their lives. You even had teams like the Jazz and Pelicans pulling impressive first-round upsets.
Here are the storylines ahead of this year's first round of the playoffs:
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Giannis Antetokounmpo's stats are going to be insane
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Giannis averaged less than 33 minutes per game in the regular season. He still managed to average 28-13-6-2-1 (points-rebounds-assists-blocks-steals). What happens when he's playing 40-plus minutes per game like most superstars have to in the playoffs? Are you ready for him to have multiple 40-point, 20-rebound games? Or average 35-18-8-3-2 for a series? Or get to the free-throw line 15 times per game? (He averaged 10 attempts per game in the regular season.) Or will he flirt with a five-by-five game (having at least five points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals in a game)? It's all within the realm of possibility for the Greek Freak this postseason.
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Speaking of deserving MVP candidates with herculean statistics in the regular season...it'll be interesting to see if James Harden's scoring barrage continues in the playoffs as his numbers usually take a hit each spring. Unlike some of his previous playoff failures with the Rockets, nobody can say that Harden didn't leave it all on the line last year. Unfortunately, his (and the other Rockets' players') three-point shot abandoned him at the worst time as he shot below 30 percent from deep. And because of the Rockets' injury problems, it's not like Harden took it easy in the regular season this year either. Will he still have his legs when the defensive intensity picks up?
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Will there be any first-round upsets?
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Last spring, Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday shocked the world by not only upsetting the Blazers in the three vs. six matchup but also crushing them in an impressive sweep. Are we in for any surprises this year? Obviously the Thunder could easily upset the Blazers, as Portland is missing Nurkic. That doesn't count. The Nuggets' collective inexperience in the playoffs makes them a vulnerable two seed going up against the veteran-laden Spurs. Expect that series to go at least six games. Out East, the Celtics could show up looking like the best team in the conference and sweep the Pacers, or they could have a meltdown and succumb to Indiana's tough defense. The last one to keep an eye on is the 76ers-Nets series. Philly hasn't really clicked despite its talent and often plays to its competition's level. If Brooklyn's guards (Russell, Dinwiddie and LeVert) catch fire for a couple of games, it could make for a long series.
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The takes are really starting to come in these days with regard to Kevin Durant. NBA gurus including Bill Simmons and Ric Bucher, are calling Durant to the Knicks a done deal and some, like Simmons, are even predicting that the Warriors don't win the title. They're questioning whether a team can win a title when its best player has a foot out the door. Durant's obviously not helping things either with his ornery press conferences and angry outbursts at referees. He just seems...sick of donning the Golden State jersey. Therefore, cameras are going to be following his every move this postseason, hoping for a glimpse of bad body language or an argument between him and a teammate or coach or a sulk when he doesn't get the ball late in a game. (By the way, all of this speculation could lead him to doing the opposite of what everyone thinks he'll do. So let's take it down a notch, because the NBA needs him off the Warriors next season.)
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What will happen to the TV ratings in the first LeBron-less playoffs since 2005?
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It was reported at various points during the regular season that TV ratings had dipped and that LeBron James signing with a Western Conference team had a lot to do with it. Will his absence from our TVs altogether in these playoffs have a similar impact on ratings? If the first round is chalk, then the ratings will definitely see some slippage when compared to last year's first round. However, the second round in each conference could feature some wildly entertaining matchups, such as the Warriors-Rockets, Bucks-Celtics or 76ers-Raptors. While those might not have the same appeal as LeBron's sisyphean effort last year did, they should be excellent series, which could draw a lot of causal fans.
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Does the pace and scoring slow down in the playoffs?
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Across the league, pace was up by about four possessions per game this season. The emphasis on freedom of movement and increased three-point attempts caused teams to push the tempo to speeds we haven't seen since the 1980s. A direct result of that increase in pace was an increase in scoring (about six more points per game across the board). Typically in the postseason, the game slows down, the defense ramps up and the game becomes a chess match in the half court. But will that happen this year? Are refs suddenly going to swallow their whistles if the Clippers start bumping and tagging Steph Curry all over the court like the Cavaliers used to in the Finals? Probably not. Thus the pace might not be much different. However, the defense will probably slow the scoring down a bit because teams tend to learn each other's offensive tendencies awfully quick in the playoffs.
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Will there be a Jayson Tatum-like breakout star this spring?
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Last spring Jayson Tatum was the second-best player on the court during the Eastern Conference Finals, and if it weren't for LeBron James playing the best basketball of his career, Tatum would have led the Celtics to the Finals as a rookie. Are there any players ready to break out during these playoffs? Ironically Tatum's game has regressed this season, setting him up to potentially "break out" once again. Jamal Murray has flashed star potential all season — Denver probably can't advance far in the playoffs without him playing at an All-Star level. Pascal Siakam is another guy who could quickly become a household name with a couple of dominant two-way series. The Nets are chock full of young players who can take over games like D'Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert and, to a lesser extent, Joe Harris with his shooting and Jarrett Allen with his rim protection and rim running. If I had to peg one guy out of this group, it's Siakam. Even some die-hard NBA fans are going to be impressed by his overall impact on the court.
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The chemistry experiment in Philly
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Talentwise, the 76ers are probably the best team in the Eastern Conference. They have arguably the best center in the league (Embiid), two All-Star-caliber wings (Harris and Butler) and a 6-foot-10 matchup nightmare at point guard (Simmons). If that star power weren't enough, they also have one of the deadliest three-point shooters in the league (Redick) and some solid veteran role players (Mike Scott, T.J. McConnell). Yet the output often doesn't match the talent for some reason. Obviously, acquiring Butler and Harris during the season impacted the team's chemistry. The good news for Sixers fans is that there is some precedent of teams acquiring star talent during the season, struggling to put it together but rallying in the playoffs for a championship push. (The 1995 Rockets did it with Clyde Drexler; the 2004 Pistons did it with Rasheed Wallace.) The bad news for Sixers fans is that there aren't any examples that come to mind of teams that acquired two stars in separate trades during the season making championship runs.
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Jokic vs. Popovich: Styles make fights
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One of the more intriguing first round matchups features a new-age, adolescent Nuggets team versus an old-school, veteran savvy Spurs team. The Nuggets are the inverse of traditional basketball — their center (Jokic) is, by far, their most effective playmaker, and their point guard (Murray) is their No. 1 option on offense. In fact, one of the most efficient pick-and-roll combinations in the league is the Jokic-Murray inverted pick-and-roll (with Jokic as the ball-handler). On the other side, there is the great Gregg Popovich, who has figured out ways to confuse and rattle some of the best players in NBA history with his defensive schemes and emphasis on ball movement on offense. How will he approach Jokic? My guess is that he does what he did with Steve Nash in the mid-2000s and forces Jokic to become a scorer by not helping on him whatsoever. If Jokic can score 35-40 per game, then he'll shake his hand at the end of the series. If he can't, then the Spurs might advance.
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Will a healthy Paul George and "good" Russell Westbrook show up for the playoffs?
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There was a 12-game stretch earlier this season where the Thunder won 11 of 12 games and were annihilating teams with their defense and athleticism. Over those 12 games, Paul George averaged 36 points, eight rebounds, five assists and more than two steals per game. During that same stretch, Russell Westbrook was averaging 20 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists per game. He was also attempting less than four three-pointers per game. (He averaged almost six per game on the season.) The Thunder need to try to recreate that in their first-round series against the Jusuf Nurkic-less Trail Blazers. Perhaps Steven Adams can take advantage of the mismatch down low against Enes "Can't Play" Kanter and Zach Collins and set the tone in the series for Oklahoma City?
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How many DNP-Load Managements for Kawhi Leonard in the first round?
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Just kidding. Maybe. The Raptors obviously pampered Leonard as much as humanly possible, not having him play in any back-to-back games and sitting him a total of 22 games in the regular season. Part of that was to try to convince him to re-sign with Toronto. Part of that was to keep him fresh for the playoffs when there aren't any back-to-back games. Because we'll likely see peak-Kawhi all postseason, does this make the Raptors the favorite in the Eastern Conference? That's who I'd put my money on right now. Leonard's offensive game is at a new level. Pascal Siakam is a nightmare matchup for opponents. Kyle Lowry won't have much defensive attention on him. Expect the Raptors to make quick work of the Magic and show some serious pop while doing it.
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Are the Celtics about to go on a run or implode?
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Celtics fans have been waiting all season for this talented team to start clicking. Will it ever happen over a sustained period of time? Or was this season the ultimate case for why it's important for teams to have a defined pecking order. Coming into the year, many thought the Celtics were the only team capable of competing with the Warriors in a seven-game series. Think about it: They have three All-Stars (Irving, Horford and Hayward), two future All-Stars (Tatum and Brown) and three players who play like they think they're All-Stars (Smart, Morris and Rozier). It's been tough for any of those players to accept a reduced role — especially the younger players. It's been a tough year for team chemistry in Boston, and this first round series with the tough, defensive-minded Pacers isn't going to be a cakewalk. Then again, talent usually wins out in the playoffs. If that holds true, then perhaps we will be seeing the Celtics take on the Warriors in the Finals after all.
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Before Victor Oladipo went down, the Pacers were the sleeper contender in the East that nobody was talking about. After the injury, Indiana got some retroactive respect for a week from NBA pundits, but then everyone forgot about them again. Interestingly enough, the Pacers never really fell off after the 'Dipo injury and could give the talented Celtics a run for their money in the first round. How have they maintained without their star? For one, they play stifling defense (top three in the league in defensive rating all year). Myles Turner has become one of the best rim protectors in the league. Their wing defenders play excellent team defense as well. Bojan Bogdanovic's defense is particularly impressive, considering he doesn't ever attempt to block any shots — he managed one "block" (it was a strip) in 81 games this season despite being 6-foot-8. On offense the team outexecutes other teams, especially when the Domantas Sabonis-led second team comes in with some old-school post low and high post offensive sets. Be wary of these Pacers, Celtics — you might end up in a knock down, drag 'em out seven-game series.
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Will the referees play a factor in any pivotal games?
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Absolutely. Do you remember all of the questionable and inconsistent calls from Game 1 of the NBA Finals last year? Did you watch any nationally televised games with Tony Brothers refereeing at any point during his tenure as an official? What about Tim Donaghy's good friend Scott Foster (who is somehow still employed by the NBA despite the 134 calls from Donaghy around the time he was allegedly fixing games)? Did you watch any of the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament? Even when these guys have access to instant replay, they find a way to screw things up. Refereeing the most athletic humans on the planet playing a fast-paced, high-flying game is difficult, but refs seem to make it harder than it should be at times.
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Will the Lakers or Knicks do anything to steal the spotlight?
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You saw it happen with Magic Johnson resigning from his position as team president on the second-to-last night of the NBA season...which also happened to be Dwyane Wade's and Dirk Nowitzki's final home games. Like it or not, when the Lakers or Knicks do something, it captures everyone's attention. Part of that is because of their crazy fan bases and huge markets, but part of it is because their respective headlines tend to be outrageous. Will the Lakers name Shaq as the new team president? Will Kobe Bryant announce he's coming back to help LeBron James learn to win as a Laker? Will the Knicks hire Rich Kleiman (Durant's agent/business partner) as their general manager? Will James Dolan sell the team to Jeff Bezos? With the Lakers and Knicks, all things are possible.