Week 11 represents a good matchup for the Denver Broncos offense to see if it can improve in one key area: handling blitzes. The Minnesota Vikings blitz 49% of the time, which is common with a Brian Flores-led defense, and the Broncos offense has handled blitzing poorly this season.
The Broncos are one of the worst teams against the blitz and rank 28th in EPA/play when a defense brings five or more rushers. Meanwhile, the Vikings are ninth in defensive EPA/play overall, and they play with a heavy box, which can make it harder to identify incoming blitzers.
One of Russell Wilson's issues this season has been poor pre-snap reads when identifying blitzers, which has led to a lot of pressures and sacks. Flores knows this, which is why the Vikings' defensive coordinator is the biggest threat to the Broncos' offense this week. He has enough weapons on defense for it to work.
On a per-down basis, the Vikings blitz the most in the NFL on first down, the second-most on second down, and fourth-most on third down. The Vikings have 22 players who have played at least one pass-rush snap, and 18 have at least one pressure.
The Broncos' offensive line has done well of late but has the fourth-lowest percentage of pressure responsibility. That means they're not the most complicit in Denver's struggles to protect Wilson. Wilson is.
Still, the Broncos' O-line will be tested by the Vikings and the blitzes they send, but they need help from their quarterback and play-caller to ease the pressure. Wilson can help by adequately identifying rushers pre-snap, with Sean Payton calling passing plays with a quick hot read.
Wilson is responsible for pressures at the highest percentage among starting NFL quarterbacks at 25%. The highlighted issue of his pre-snap reads is a significant reason for that. He isn't great at getting the ball out quickly on short routes, making it harder to handle Flores' defense.
What makes it worse is Wilson has been sacked 30 times this season, and 17 of them have come on third and fourth down. The Broncos have to figure out how to fix this no matter who they're playing, but it is imperative against the Flores-led Vikings.
The Takeaway
This will be tough for a Broncos' offense that, while improved, hasn't been great during their three-game winning streak. That doesn't mean the offense has been bad, but it lacks consistency and efficiency, which can work when you get nine extra possessions over two games. Now Denver faces a team that excels with its blitzing, a season-long issue.
This will be an excellent test for Wilson with what he fully brings to the table, Payton as a play-caller, and the Broncos receivers' ability to make themselves a target quickly. If the Broncos can be effective with their hot reads and get a good screen game going, which is an excellent counter to aggressive defenses, they could walk out with their fourth straight victory.
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