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Analysts Warn, Rams’ Matthew Stafford Now in ‘Bad Spot’ Heading Into Week 1

Originally posted on LAFB Network | By Ryan Anderson | Last updated Sep 2, 2025 9:29 PM ET

As the Los Angeles Rams prepare to open their 2025 season at home against the Houston Texans, attention has squarely focused on quarterback Matthew Stafford. After a summer of speculation surrounding his back injury, the wait-and-see period is over: Stafford is set to take the field on Sunday.

As NBC Sports analysts Patrick Daugherty and Denny Carter note, the real concern is the Rams’ top receivers—Puka Nakua and Davante Adams—and Stafford’s ability to stay upright while delivering the ball to them. “Yeah, the metrics are not looking good, actually, for Stafford in this game if the goal is to keep him upright and healthy,” Carter said.

Stafford, a seasoned veteran with a reputation for toughness, is facing a daunting task. The Rams’ offensive line struggled mightily last season, with Pro Football Focus grading it as the league’s second-worst unit in pass protection. Meanwhile, Houston’s front seven ranked eighth in quarterback knockdowns last year, making for a potentially punishing matchup. “This is a bad spot for Stafford to stay healthy and worry about him long-term this season,” Daugherty added, highlighting the risk posed by one of the league’s most fearsome pass rushes.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game

Analysts Warn, Rams' Matthew Stafford Now in 'Bad Spot' Heading Into Week 1 1 Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

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The Texans enter the matchup with a well-defined defensive profile. Last season, they were undefeated (6-0) when opponents converted fewer than 55% of red zone opportunities into touchdowns, tied for the best in the NFL. They also excelled at applying pressure: Houston was 5-4 when sacking quarterbacks fewer than three times, tied for seventh in the league.

Additional defensive metrics underscore their efficiency against the pass. The Texans allowed successful plays on just 46% of first-read passes and 45% of first-read plays overall—both second-best in the NFL. Their front seven’s ability to disrupt quarterbacks is a key factor, particularly against an offensive line with known vulnerabilities.

Rams’ Offensive Challenges

Analysts Warn, Rams' Matthew Stafford Now in 'Bad Spot' Heading Into Week 1 2 Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The Rams rely heavily on Stafford’s arm to keep their dynamic receiving corps productive. Yet, last season’s data underscores the inherent difficulties. Los Angeles averaged just -0.27 expected points added (EPA) per play on contested throws—the worst in the NFL. Meanwhile, the team’s rush game has struggled, particularly on left-side carries, averaging just 3.8 yards per attempt, second-worst in the league.

Even in favorable scenarios, the Rams face tight margins. They were undefeated when rushing for over 100 yards and when within seven points entering the fourth quarter, but they were winless when committing a fumble—a reminder that Stafford’s health and ball security will be paramount.

Long-Term Outlook

Stafford’s decision to play despite limited practice underscores his competitive drive and commitment to the team. But with Houston’s high-pressure front and the Rams’ own pass-blocking concerns, analysts caution patience. Carter and Daugherty suggest monitoring Stafford closely throughout the season, both for performance and for durability.

Ultimately, Sunday’s opener is about more than a single game. It may set the tone for Stafford’s campaign and test LA’s ability to balance offensive explosiveness with protecting their veteran quarterback. As Daugherty summarized: “Stafford wants to play his campaign until the season starts going south. So we’re going to be very dialed in on Matthew Stafford’s health this year.”

This article first appeared on LAFB Network and was syndicated with permission.

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