ESPN just rolled out its massive 2025 NFL season preview, and Washington Commanders fans might not love what they’re reading.
NFL Nation reporters John Keim, Seth Walder, and Matt Bowen teamed up to break down every team’s strengths, concerns, and projections, plus threw in some bold predictions especially for the Commanders.
Washington was ranked eighth in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) with a projected 9.1 wins, but analytics writer Seth Walder dropped a prediction that will sting in Washington.
“The Commanders will finish below .500. Sure, they could continue their ascent. But there are a lot of ways this season could go sideways for the Commanders. The aging defense with a lack of pass rush could fail them, injury or decline could strike McLaurin (their receiving group is weak behind him), or Daniels’ early-down numbers from a season ago (merely average!) could be a better indication of who he is going forward.”
Walder's prediction may be confusing to some fans given how successful the team was in the new regimes first year, but heading into year 2 there will be increased pressure on the team to repeat that success from last year.
According to Keim, Washington’s biggest strength starts with second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels.
“One opposing coach said in the offseason that Daniels makes a lot of wrongs right because of his explosive ability with his arm (3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns) and legs (891 yards, six touchdowns). He infuses confidence, making teammates believe they can win any game. Multiple receivers had their best seasons playing with him last season, including Terry McLaurin, who had a career-high 13 touchdown receptions. Tight end Zach Ertz called Daniels the leader of the team and said, It’s crazy to think he’s only in his second year.”
But the concerns are just as real, especially on offense. Keim brings up how early success is needed for the team to have a great year.
“Offensive chemistry -- especially early in the season. The defense, which faces its own questions about how improved it is, looked strong this summer, and though Daniels is the strength, the first-team offense hasn’t worked much together.
With this in mind many will be eager to see how the team performs throughout the first month. This may give in indication on how their year will pan out.
The ESPN analytics love Daniels’ ability to make plays under pressure.
“Daniels excelled under pressure last season -- specifically when blitzed -- finishing with a 92 QBR versus the blitz in 2024 (including playoffs). That ranked first out of 93 QBs who have had 200-plus dropbacks against a blitz since 2006,” According to ESPN Research.
There’s even fantasy football value in the Commanders’ backfield. with rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
"With the team trading away Brian Robinson Jr., there is an opportunity here for Croskey-Merritt to establish a role in a backfield share with Austin Ekeler", said Bowen. "Croskey-Merritt has flashed during the preseason with his short-area acceleration and decisive running style. With the potential for flex upside in the lineup, I’d take a chance on the rookie in the later rounds.”
The Commanders have talent and expectations, but ESPN’s bold call shows just how much pressure is on Daniels and this roster to prove last year wasn’t a fluke.
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