ESPN's Computer Model Predicts UNC's Final W-L Record

Originally posted on The Spun | By Tzvi Machlin | Last updated Sep 2, 2025 4:47 PM ET

The embarrassing loss that Bill Belichick's North Carolina Tar Heels suffered against TCU last night has just about everyone rethinking the team's place in college football's hierarchy.

More crucially, the projections for the team's win-loss total in the 2025 college football season are declining.

It's hard to understate the amount of hype that went into Belichick's arrival in Chapel Hill. The most-accomplished head coach in NFL history taking his talents to a school where football is a distant second in terms of prestige and importance certainly got the nation's attention.

But after one 48-14 blowout loss, people are certainly wondering if Belichick sold the Tar Heels a bill of goods (no pun intended).

Bill Belichick’s full post-game press conference pic.twitter.com/nPVfTU5inP
— Josh Graham (@JoshGrahamShow) September 2, 2025

As of Tuesday, ESPN has updated its Football Power Index, a computer model that calculates win-loss totals and other metrics. Things are not looking good for the Tar Heels.

North Carolina currently have a projected win-loss record of 4.2-7.8 - rounding the numbers that's around a 4-8 record. That mark would be worse than any of Mack Brown's six seasons in charge prior to Belichick's arrival and would be on-par with some of the worst years of the ill-fated Larry Fedora era.

CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA - DECEMBER 12: Head Coach Bill Belichick of the North Carolina Tar Heels poses during a press conference on December 12, 2024 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Implications for Belichick

When Belichick first took the North Carolina job, many assumed that Belichick was simply taking it in order to stay in the NFL head coaching candidate pool while waiting for another team to offer him a job. The contract was reportedly structured in such a way so that Belichick could do just that if he was so inclined.

Another fringe benefit of taking a college coaching job was a chance to show that he can adapt - something he was accused of not doing at all during his final few years with the New England Patriots.

But Belichick's future NFL prospects probably hinge as much on proving he still has the coaching skills that they need.

If Belichick's tenure in North Carolina is anywhere close to the level of disastrous that the wider sports world saw last night, those NFL doors might slam shut on him for good.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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