Finding value in NFL divisional futures

Wait, there are really no games today? This feels... strange. Yes, we have the Home Run Derby, but that isn't until tonight (covered below). With extra time on our hands today, we turn to the NFL futures market. There is plenty to consider a wager on prior to football returning for our Sunday routine, and we begin our offseason research with a look into divisional futures for the NFC East and NFC North.

Fly Eagles fly — We're looking for value in these futures market, and the best one we see out the gate is on Philadelphia to win its division at +185 (FD). No team has won back-to-back NFC East titles since the Eagles did so way back in 2004. Couple that trend with the offseason moves by Philly and Dallas, and the arrow squarely favors the Eagles. Philadelphia brought in AJ Brown to complete one of the best pass-catching trios in the league (Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert). The Eagles revamped the defense with playmakers at all three levels, and the coaching staff heads into its second year together. The X-factor is Jalen Hurts. Hurts has strong receivers and an elite offensive line surrounding him, giving him an enviable situation in what is an important year for the young quarterback. Dallas has the better QB in Dak Prescott, but when we consider the Cowboys' roster today vs. the end of the 2021 season, we see a team that has gotten worse. We're backing Hurts to clean up some of his mistakes, and the depth of the Eagles roster from top to bottom makes Philly our preference this coming year. 

Will anyone unseat the Pack? — The Green Bay Packers are the heavy favorites to win the NFC North, and for good reason. They have the back-to-back MVP winner in Aaron Rodgers returning, along with an elite defense. The cause for concern comes from the loss of Davante Adams, traded to the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason. The loss of Rodgers' top weapon will be interesting to monitor for this offense. With the wild card of an Adams-less Packers, plus odds at -170 to win the division, we're staying off Green Bay. We're throwing a flyer out on the Minnesota Vikings at +300. Our interest in Minnesota stems from a very talented offense led by star Justin Jefferson. The Vikes have beaten the Packers before, and if anything were to happen to Rodgers, it's Minnesota that feels the most stable to us. We don't recommend a large bet on this future, but it's the best value we can find in the NFC North.

In other news ...

Home Run Derby tonight — The premier betting event of the night is the Home Run Derby, set to begin at 8 p.m. ET. We've got eight participants competing in the main draw of the evening, led by betting favorite Pete Alonso (+185). Alonso has won two straight Derby titles, but we don't like following the favorite in this instance. We like the return story for Corey Seager (+1000), who played home games for 7 years at Dodger Stadium, where tonight's Derby is being held. The betting market also allows you to bet parlays on the first-round results, as each hitter will face off with one other in a round-by-round format. We have two parlays we like, with Kyle Schwarber beating Albert Pujols as the foundational piece of each.

Cameron Smith wins The Open with strong putting game — Cameron Smith hoisted the Claret Jug Sunday with a final-round 64 in Scotland. Smith (+2500 to win) went into Sunday down four strokes to betting favorite Rory McIlroy. Smith's putter was on fire, leading to eight birdies on the day and powering the win, his first career major.

Juan Soto wants out from the Nationals — The big news out of baseball the past few days was that star outfielder Juan Soto turned down a $440 million contract extension with Washington, his current team. The expectation now is that Soto will be traded, perhaps even before this year's deadline. The Yankees are the current favorite to land the young star, at +150 on some books. The other teams near the top of the betting market are your typical big-market names, like the Dodgers (+250) and Mets (+300).

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll