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Four legs and a dream: $15 to win $1514 NFL lotto ticket parlay
Griffy Bets's ticket. Good luck! Griffin Carroll

Four legs and a dream: $15 to win $1514 NFL lotto ticket parlay

We're back for a fresh try at a lottery ticket parlay for NFL Sunday. Week 1, we got two of four legs correct. Week 2, we nailed all four legs. Week 3, we were back to two of four legs hitting. As many scientists and studiers of pattern will tell you, the only logical landing spot this week is for all four legs to hit again.

Bet responsibly: this is a long-shot ticket. Utilize some of the sweat-free bets at your disposal or find a sportsbook giving you some bonus bets. I'm on DraftKings for this one, using their 25% NFL boost to get the odds to +9993.

Ja'Marr Chase 100+ receiving yards

I jumped on Chase's normal over at 82.5 the minute I saw it, and honestly 100+ might be a bit too conservative for the spot he and Cincinnati are in on Sunday.

You see, to put it lightly, Tennessee's secondary is a disaster. They're getting gashed by big plays and have shown no ability to slow down any wide receivers. If you've been here every week, you already know that we've targeted the Titans each week, and each week that receiver has hit their leg for us in our journey to hitting some lotto tickets.

WR1 Chris Olave finished with 112 in Week 1. Top receiver Keenan Allen accumulated 111 yards in Week 2, and last week it was Amari Cooper's turn, wrapping the day with 116 yards.

Now it's Chase's turn, fresh off a 141-yard game.

Chris Olave 100+ receiving yards

Speaking of Olave, we're going back to our guy to hit the 100+ yard mark. We already highlighted the Saints' top receiver on Friday, I'm on his normal yardage over. Now, I had Olave circled prior to the news that Derek Carr might play.

I'd rather he doesn't, but I'm trusting in Olave to produce no matter the situation.

The reason being is simple: Tampa has allowed a 100+ yard game to a wide receiver each week this year, and that's in large part due to their defense allowing the third-most passes of 20+ yards.

Olave has gone over 100 twice this year, and if Jameis Winston does start, the last two games he did, he targeted Olave 26 times. 

Puka Nacua 100+ receiving yards

You'll sense a trend here, I'm also on Nacua's receiving yardage over in what could potentially be his last game as the top wide receiver on this offense before Cooper Kupp returns.


Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use. 


Against Indianapolis, we're going to want to load up the Rams wide out to have a big game. The Colts have been one of softer secondaries to start the season, and they've already seen a pair of 100+ yard receiver games against them with Calvin Ridley (101) to start the year and Nico Collins (146) in Week 2.

Nacua is averaging 112.7 yards per game on the young season, twice going for 119+. His elite usage makes him a logical choice in this week's lotto.

Davante Adams 100+ receiving yards

I was waiting on this line to open. It was delayed due to the uncertainty of Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion), who has been confirmed as out. Candidly, I really don't care who is at quarterback; they're going to throw the ball to Davante Adams.

No team is allowing more 20+ yard passes than the Chargers this year, and their 8.5 yards allowed per pass attempt mark is the third-highest in the NFL. This is the same issue that plagued them last season.


GriffyBets's ticket. Good luck! Griffin Carroll

Speaking of last season, Adams absolutely torched the Chargers in two meetings, finishing with 141 and 177 yards. Adams just had his best game of the year, putting up 172 yards on 20 targets.

100+ is probably too low but I'm just trying to build a winner that has a long-shot element while still maintaining some semblance of safety. Last week, Justin Jefferson put up 149 against this secondary, and back in Week 1 we saw Tyreek Hill finish with 215.



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