Houston Texans 2025 Win Total: This Bet Is a Tough One

The Houston Texans are sitting pretty at 9.5 wins for their 2025 season total, and let me tell you something – the oddsmakers might actually know what they’re doing this time. While the Houston Texans made the playoffs last season, they looked very off. There is a lot of question marks surrounding this team and where to bet the win total-wise.

Why the Texans Might Actually Struggle This Season

Look, nobody wants to be the guy raining on Houston’s parade. The Texans have been through enough heartbreak to last several lifetimes, and their fans deserve something to cheer about. Last season’s 10-win campaign wasn’t exactly a masterclass in offensive dominance. Sure, they made the playoffs and gave Kansas City a decent fight in the divisional round, but let’s pump the brakes on the coronation ceremony. The Texans ranked a pedestrian 26th in offensive DVOA – and that was with a schedule softer than Jerry Jones’ ego when talking about his draft picks. CJ Stroud is going to be behind a weak O-line this year, too.

The Schedule Reality Check

Here’s where things get interesting, and by interesting, I mean potentially ugly for Houston backers. While the Texans were feasting on the sixth-easiest set of defenses in 2024, they’re about to face a much more challenging menu in 2025. Eight games against teams that ranked 12th or better in offensive DVOA last season. That’s not exactly a recipe for defensive regression in the right direction.

The AFC South, which basically handed Houston the division title on a silver platter last season, might actually have some fight left in it. Jacksonville is showing signs of life and potential with the moves they made during the offseason.

Regression to the Mean is Real

The Texans went 4-2 in games decided by a field goal or less last season, and 6-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Those aren’t sustainable numbers, folks. That’s not pessimism talking – that’s mathematics. Teams that consistently win close games one year typically don’t repeat that magic the following season.

Houston finished 1.1 wins above expectation in 2024, which sounds impressive until you realize that means they were lucky. And luck, much like Jerry Jones’ faith in his own personnel decisions, has a tendency to run out when you need it most.

The Injury Factor