NFL player prop bets for Week 3 and beyond

If the Cleveland Browns expedite the process, Baker Mayfield’s statue outside First Energy Stadium could be completed before Christmas, while his bronze bust, 45 minutes down the road in Canton, will be displayed in 15-20 years. The rookie quarterback looked incredibly sharp Thursday night after taking over the reins for a bruised and battered Tyrod Taylor. The "Dawg Pound" and "Browns Nation" get to relish the team’s first win in 635 days, which snaps an ugly 19-game winless streak. Now the question becomes: If Taylor’s healthy, is there a quarterback controversy in Cleveland?

Odds: Mayfield -10,000 | Taylor +5,000

Based on oddsmakers' assessments, bettors would need to risk $10,000 to win $100 if they believe Baker Mayfield will be the team’s Week 4 starter. The first-year quarterback completed 17-of-23 passes for 201 yards and caught a two-point conversion against the Jets. Now compare that to Taylor who, in nine quarters and change this season, completed less than 50 percent of his throws with an average yard per attempt of 5.5, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Plus, Taylor suffered a concussion during the win over the Jets. He could pass protocol, but Hue Jackson will “look at the tape,” as he indicated and realize that if he goes with Taylor Week 4, his odds of jumping into Lake Erie again would be on the rise.

Note: On the outside chance Taylor clears concussion protocol and Mayfield was *gasp* injured during practice this week, there’s an easy way to lose $10,000.

The pick: Mayfield

Odds: Yes +900 | No -3,500

The Pittsburgh Steelers' 2018 season is off to a bumpy start. They’re dealing with Le’Veon Bell’s continued holdout, they tied archrival Cleveland and after getting torched by a first-year starter in Patrick Mahomes, Mike Tomlin and Co. had to listen to whispers that Antonio Brown was unhappy and wanted to be dealt. Granted, Brown clarified his social media remarks and absence from Monday’s meetings, but oddsmakers still believe there’s an off chance he could be moved. Brown has caught 18 balls on 33 Ben Roethlisberger targets the first two weeks. No matter where he goes, he’ll never be fed as well as Roethlisberger feeds him. Plus, AFC competition remains soft, as the Patriots fight to remain relevant on an annual basis.

The pick: Brown remains a Steeler

Odds: Yes +150 | No -200

The knee brace Aaron Rodgers was required to wear during the Vikings game last weekend appeared to be military grade. It was bulky, but it was a necessity to keep his left knee protected from further injury. Remember, on the night of the injury, Rodgers couldn’t bend his left knee to tie his shoe. His practice schedule ahead of a Week 3 matchup against the Redskins included resting midweek. Although he remained relatively unscathed in the Packers tie against the Vikings, his average yards per pass attempt were noticeably lower. This could have to do with Minnesota’s pass rush and/or Rodgers having a tough time driving off his left leg.

The 16-game regular season is arduous, and it’s hard to fathom Rodgers starting all 16 when dealt a somewhat severe blow to his leg so early in the season. With inexperienced DeShone Kizer behind him, the Packers would have to be desperate. But I don’t think Rodgers can do all 16 games this season.

The pick: NO

Odds: Yes +400 | No -700

In case you missed it, Buffalo Bills cornerback and 10-year NFL veteran, Vontae Davis, literally quit at halftime of Week 2’s game against the Chargers. He left the team’s locker room and stadium. Davis later called the midgame retirement “therapeutic.” So the idea that he’d return at any point this season seems far-fetched. That is until you remember that former Cleveland Browns linebacker Mychal Kendricks was charged with insider trading by the FBI, admitted to it and was cut by the Browns only to be signed by the Seattle Seahawks ahead of Week 2.

Anything is possible.

The pick: YES

Odds: Yes -150 | No +110

Manning’s current contract runs through the 2019 season, and he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2020. He’ll be 38 years old at the start of the 2019 regular season. However, as of right now, there is no threat to his quarterback throne. The team waived presumed heir, Davis Webb, before the start of this season, Alex Tanney is the Giants current second-stringer and fourth-round draft pick, Kyle Lauletta, is the third-string quarterback. While he might be lacking in pass protection due to an inefficient offensive line, Manning is among those veterans with great job security.

The pick: YES (unless he retires)

Odds: Over 9.5 (+145) | Under 9.5 (-190)

Thomas has averaged 14 receptions and 15 Drew Brees targets per game through the first two games this season. The Falcons, whose secondary is somewhat depleted, ranked ninth against the pass, while opposing quarterbacks have completed 65 percent of their passes. Carolina’s leading receiver last week was Devin Funchess, who finished with seven receptions for 77 yards. The rapport between Brees and Thomas is five-times better than it is between Cam Newton and Funchess. However, Thomas finished with only one double-digit reception performance in 19 games last season. He’s already posted two in two weeks. Odds aren’t on his side, and the upside on the over isn't great enough.

The pick: UNDER

Odds: Patrick Mahomes vs. SF (-160) | Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. PIT (+120)

Patrick Mahomes is breaking records, while Ryan Fitzpatrick is challenging Father Time. The two triggers have combined to throw 18 touchdowns in two weeks, with the elder statesman, Fitzpatrick, trailing the first-year starter 10-8. However, "Fitzmagic" faces the same Steelers defense that Mahomes just torched for 326 yards and six touchdowns. Meanwhile, Mahomes makes his first home start against the visiting 49ers. San Francisco’s defense allowed Matthew Stafford to pass for 347 yards and three touchdowns. The Steelers secondary is more likely to make adjustments and not repeat its early-season struggles, so Mahomes arm strength and bevvy of receivers provide him the edge.

The pick: Mahomes

Odds: Yes +300 | No -500

It’s a stat that one would assume belongs to the Browns. Yet, it’s the Seahawks who haven’t scored a touchdown on an opening drive in 31 straight regular-season games, a span of nearly two years Seattle’s Week 3 opponent, Dallas, forced the Panthers to fumble and the Giants to punt on its first two opening defensive drives. Russell Wilson is a fourth-quarter magician and can put points on the board late, but the team's early-game struggles continue.

 The pick: They don’t score

Odds: Over 15.5 (-120) | Under 15.5 (-120)

Carson Wentz is back, but Mike Wallace was just placed on IR, Alshon Jeffery hasn't been cleared for contact, Jay Ajayi has missed practices and Darren Sproles is sidelined. So it's Wentz, Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz and Corey Clement against the Colts. Granted, in Wentz's first start since tearing his ACL, the last thing the Eagles want to do is watch their franchise quarterback running away from would-be tacklers. However, Wentz is known for his mobility. He rushed for 16 or more yards in seven games last season before the season-ending knee injury. With a limited roster, he may have no choice but to tuck it and run.

The pick: OVER

Odds: Yes +155 | No -220

He's the second-most accurate kicker in NFL history. Bailey is also trading the dome of AT&T Stadium for the dome of U.S. Bank Stadium, where the Minnesota Vikings host the Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon. So long as his special teams line blocks and fills the gaps, Bailey won't encounter any issues during his debut.

The Pick: NO

Odds: Over 640.5 (-120) | Under 640.5 (-120)

It turns out Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett were not the ideal trio if Tom Brady and the Patriots' were interested in returning to the Super Bowl. So last week, the team worked out and eventually inked free agents Bennie Fowler and Corey Coleman. Then earlier this week, they traded for Josh Gordon. Fowler was cut and released, while Coleman was cut and later signed to the team's practice squad. Despite his off-the-field issues, I'm always happy to remind people that Gordon's greatest stretch of his career came with Jason Campbell behind center. If he and Brady can sync up, the sky's the limit for this pairing.

The pick: OVER

Odds: Over 6 | Under 6

The Falcons really missed safety Keanu Neal last week against the Panthers. Their depleted secondary could not contain Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield. The second-year running back/wide receiver hybrid finished with a career-high 14 receptions on 15 targets. While I don't expect Kamara to catch 14 balls, he's averaged better than seven receptions through the first two weeks. If McCaffrey can catch 14 against the Falcons, Kamara can haul in seven-plus.

The pick: OVER

Odds: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5

Opposing quarterbacks, namely Sam Darnold and Jimmy Garoppolo, possess the third-highest passer rating against the Lions defense through two weeks. They've completed better than 72 percent of their passes with four touchdowns and only one pick. If Josh Gordon can recover from his hamstring injury and learn the playbook in time for Sunday night, it would provide a huge boost to Brady's chances of hitting this over. But I'm going to harness the temptation. The Lions rush defense is so putrid that I think the Patriots punch it in when around the goal line.

The Pick: UNDER

Odds: Yes (-115) | No (EVEN)

Julio Jones has one touchdown in his last 12 regular-season games. He finished all of 2017 with just three scores in Steve Sarkisian's offense. The Saints top defensive back, Marshon Lattimore, has not looked as crisp as he did during his award-winning rookie campaign. Jones is receiving too many targets per game to be held out of the end zone indefinitely. He scores this week.

The pick: YES

Odds: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5

In 11 regular-season games where Carson Wentz and Ertz shared a field last season, the sixth-year tight end averaged five receptions per game. With the Eagles missing two receivers and possibly two running backs to injury, assume Ertz is going to see double-digit targets against the Colts. Indianapolis has allowed opposing tight ends to catch 12 balls for 119 yards through the first two weeks.

The pick: OVER