Week 1 of the NFL season, and everyone thinks they’re Bill Belichick with their survivor pool strategy. But here’s the thing about survivor pools that separates the wheat from the chaff: it’s not about being the smartest person in the room for one week. It’s about surviving 18 weeks of pure football chaos while everyone else crashes and burns.
This isn’t fantasy football, where you can drop your kicker and pick up another one. This is Survivor, where one bad decision sends you to the unemployment line faster than a rookie quarterback facing Aaron Donald. Here are the Top 3 choices for Survivor Players to make.
The Eagles are sitting pretty at home on Thursday night, and Dallas just made their defense about as intimidating as a wet paper bag by trading Micah Parsons. Sure, 15% of the public is in on Philadelphia, but that’s not exactly a crowd-following move. The Cowboys’ passing game might keep this interesting for a half, but the Eagles have weapons on both sides of the ball. Plus, reigning Super Bowl winners historically perform well in Week 1 when they’re not too busy counting their championship rings.
Here’s where nearly a quarter of your pool is headed, and honestly? I don’t blame them. Tennessee might be starting a rookie quarterback on the road against one of the league’s most suffocating defenses. The Titans could legitimately be the worst team in football this year. Denver’s home opener advantage is real – that Mile High altitude has ended more comeback dreams than a guidance counselor at a community college. But with 24.4% of people making this pick, you’re not exactly zigging while others zag.
This is where things get spicy. The Cardinals are road favorites, which tells you everything about how much respect the Saints are getting this season. Arizona has quietly built something decent, while New Orleans looks like they’re in full rebuild mode. Only 12% of the public is on this pick, which means you’re getting solid value with decent win probability. Sometimes the best survivor strategy is finding teams nobody’s talking about and be a little risky..
The Bengals are road favorites against a Browns team that’s somehow gotten worse since last season. Cleveland’s offense has more question marks than a toddler’s first attempt at writing their name. With less than 9% of people on Cincinnati, this is a contrarian play that could pay dividends. The Bengals have talent, and the Browns have… well, they have uniforms and question marks.
Washington at home against a Giants team that looks like they’re tanking without actually admitting it. The Commanders have some pieces in place, while New York seems content to practice their golf swings for the back nine of the season. This pick gives you solid win probability without following the crowd too much. Sometimes boring wins championships.
It’s best to avoid divisional matchups this early, so the Eagles, Commanders, and Bengals are not the best options. Eagles are tempting, but there are plenty of weeks to pick them. This really comes down to the Arizona Cardinals or the Denver Broncos. While the Broncos are the safe pick, they also have plenty of weeks to pick them throughout the season. Arizona does not, and while it’s risky, this might be the best chance to burn Arizona and wait long-term for the Broncos. So, take the Cardinals this Week for Survivor.
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