10 thoughts on the Oilers Game 4 loss

The Edmonton Oilers had won ten consecutive Game 4s until last night’s overtime loss in Anaheim. Now the Oilers trail 3-1 in the series and are in must-win territory.

1. The overtime winner will be debated for years. The video review didn’t show the puck clearly across the line, but common sense tells us it was. The NHL situation room did declare that the puck completely crossed the goal line, but I do wonder if they would have overturned it and called it a goal based on the review. Again, looking at the video and picture, it looks like the puck is completely across the line, but due to Tristan Jarry’s skate blade covering the goal line, we don’t get to fully see it. I am a believer in common sense, and if we remove emotion, I think most people will agree the puck was over the line.

2. The NHL could make one change this off-season to eliminate any further concerns on situations like this (Jeff Marek mentioned this): paint another line inside the net that the puck could only reach if it fully crosses the (original) goal line, even if the goal line and puck are partially covered. It wouldn’t be 100 per cent perfect, because if the puck were upright and not flat, then the width of the puck would change, but a situation like last night would be crystal clear.

3. Regardless of the overtime goal, the main issue of the Oilers in this series continued: they can’t hold a lead, can’t kill off a penalty often enough, and they are getting demolished in the second period. All three occurred again last night. NHL teams are 20-11 when scoring first, but the Oilers are 1-3, meaning the other seven series have the team scoring first going 19-8. The Oilers blew a two-goal lead in Game 1, and they did again last night. They had a 3-2 last night after having 1-0 and 3-2 leads in Game 3 and couldn’t hold on. Edmonton has been unable to lock it down when needed, and it is why they trail the series 3-1.

The Ducks’ power play has loads of confidence, and the Oilers’ PK is fragile. The PK is an atrocious 50 per cent with Anaheim scoring six goals on 12 opportunities. They’ve scored a PP goal in every game including two in Games 2 and 4. The Darnell Nurse and Connor Murphy pair when on together has only been on for one goal. Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm have been on for four of the six goals. Maybe Paul Coffey needs to consider using Ty Emberson in Game 5? The Oilers have used nine forwards on the PK and their time and goals against have been:

Kasperi Kapanen: 6:42 and three GA (26.87 GA/60).

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 5:52 and two GA (20.4 GA/60).

Connor McDavid: 5:28 and one GA (10.98 GA/60).

Jason Dickinson: 5:07 and one GA (11.73 GA/60).

Matt Savoie: 4:46 and one GA (12.59).

Josh Samanski: 4:03 and two GA (29.63).

Draisaitl: 1:49 and one GA (33.03).

Zach Hyman: 0:34 and one GA (105.88 GA).

Curtis Lazar: 0:22 and 0 GA.

They’ve missed Adam Henrique on the penalty kill, and they missed Jason Dickinson. Bouchard, Ekholm, and RNH were on for both PK goals last night while Kapanen and McDavid were each on for one. I’d consider trying Ty Emberson at this point on the second unit. I doubt they will, as they will go with what got them to the dance, but it should be considered.

4. The Oilers are getting trounced in the second period. They’ve been outscored 9-4. In Game 1 they were outscored 3-0, and last night they were outscored 2-0, and both times they saw two-goal leads evaporate. In the regular season they outscored teams 100-89 in the middle frame. They were tied for the most goals scored with Tampa Bay and Dallas, while they were tied with Pittsburgh for the 12th most allowed. The Oilers’ +11 goal differential was ranked 20th. They weren’t great defensively, but they weren’t this porous. One area I’d consider changing when they get a two-goal lead would be having wingers come back deeper in the zone. Too often the Oilers’ D-men have the puck, but there is no outlet passer within 30 feet of them. They are relying too heavily on the long pass on breakouts, and the Ducks are countering.

5. I thought Jarry played well in his first start of the series. The winning goal was unlucky as it deflected off of Darnell Nurse’s skate and in. Jarry made some key saves at times, especially in the final 10 minutes of the first period and the last 10 minutes of the third. I’d start him in Game 5.

6. I’ve heard rumblings the Oilers have many players banged up — McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Dickinson, but also others (Henrique is out and likely won’t play tomorrow). Injuries are the great unknown in sports, however, some guys were banged up late in the season, and if the Oilers had played better in November, December, January, and February and been in a better position, they could have rested guys. Some injuries, like McDavid’s in this series, are unavoidable, but the Oilers’ willingness to not take the regular season more seriously is an issue. I’ve never agreed with the notion the regular season doesn’t matter. Of course it does, and in this instance had they played better early on, then they could have rested guys longer who entered the playoffs banged up.

7. The Oilers are 2-7 all time when trailing 3-1 in a series, but they are 1-1 when they start a series on home ice. Edmonton won’t be focusing on winning three games. They just need to win tomorrow and force Game 6. The Oilers have won three games in a row over the same opponent in three of their previous five series. They beat Dallas four in a row in Games 2-5 in the Conference Final last year. They won Games 3-6 in the opening round against L.A. last season, and they won Games 4-6 over Florida in the Cup Final in 2024. Coming back to win this series is a daunting task, but not impossible.

8. Kasperi Kapanen has been excellent in this series. He and Brandon Hagel are tied for the league lead with four five-on-five goals, and they, along with Draisaitl, Taylor Hall, and Bowen Byram, lead with five five-on-five points. Kapanen has yet to be on the ice for a goal against at five-on-five as he’s outscored the opposition 6-0. Without him on the ice the Oilers have been outscored 11-6.

The Podkozlin-Draisaitl-Kapanen line has easily been the Oilers’ best line. In 44:34 together they’ve outshot the Ducks 33-16 and outscored them 5-0. Knoblauch should keep them together exclusively until maybe the final five minutes if they are trailing by a goal. Kapanen has been excellent, and of the pending UFA forwards, he should be priority #1 to sign. His combination of speed, size, skill, and physicality is a perfect mix for playoff hockey.

9. Jackson LaCombe leads the NHL in playoff scoring with eight points in four games. He’s played 26:42/game and when he’s on the ice, the Ducks have outshot EDM 55-30 and outscored them 7-4. When he’s off, EDM has outshot ANA 71-46 and outscored them 8-4. He and Jacob Trouba have been an excellent pair for Anaheim, and they’ve been better, thus far, than the Oilers’ top pairing.

10. Knoblauch has the last change tomorrow. He needs to look for more favourable matchups at times. Take a page out of Jon Cooper’s book. Did you see what he did last game in Montreal? He wanted Anthony Cirelli out against Nick Suzuki’s line. So he’d start Cirelli, and if Suzuki wasn’t on the ice, then right after the faceoff the Lightning would change, and Cirelli would come off, and they’d send another line out. The Oilers have home ice advantage and last change, and if the Ducks have Lacombe on the ice, then put out another line, don’t just accept so easily that McDavid/Lacombe matchup.