Current NHL players who have the best chances to reach 500 goals

Between Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid, there was John Tavares. He hasn’t lived up to that level of hype, but he’s had an excellent career. After all, he’s about to get to 500 goals. The one-time Islander, current Maple Leaf, has 494 goals, so it’s only a matter of games before he gets that 500th goal. Given his age, it’s possible he will even get to 600.

If not for injuries, Kane would already have 500 goals. In his heyday, the American had two 40-goal seasons. All things considered, Kane is at 492 goals, so the question becomes, will Kane get to 500 goals before his 37th birthday, which arrives in late November?

Tavares and Kane are the only two locks, and then there are the younger guys who are well on track to get to 500 goals barring injury. What about the veteran guys, though? Neither Corey Perry nor Anze Kopitar is likely to make it. They are closer to 500 than Marchand, but not close enough. So why Marchand, who is at 424 goals heading into his age-37 season? He just signed a six-year deal with the Panthers. If he even averaged 15 goals a season, he’ll get to 500.

Matthews is essentially a lock, because saying “barring injury” over and over isn’t very fun. He’s the best goal scorer since Stamkos, and possibly since Ovechkin. Matthews has already gotten to 400 goals, and he’s not even 30. He has two 60-goal campaigns to his name and has never had fewer than 33 goals in a season. Matthews could easily be at 500 in two more seasons, and if not, he’ll do it early in the season after that.

It’s certainly nice to spend your peak years next to the best player since Sidney Crosby, and possibly the best since Mario Lemieux. A guy who is going to show up later on this list, of course. Draisaitl, with his heavy shot and ability to score from awkward angles, has topped 50 goals four times already. He may be relegated to the Scottie Pippen role, but Pippen was a Hall of Famer. The German will likely get to 400 goals before turning 30 (he’s one away and will turn 30 just before Halloween), and he will also likely get to 1,000 points this upcoming season.

Pastrnak is the last star standing for the Bruins, but even if the team is rebuilding, he’ll get his goals. After all, he scored 32 last season, his fifth 40-goal season. The Czech sniper will reach 400 goals in the 2025-26 season, but it will likely take a couple of more years until he reaches 500. That being said, the man they call “Pasta” isn’t even 30, so he’ll get to 500.

If Draisaitl is relegated to being the next guy’s Pippen, MacKinnon is stuck as the…Karl Malone? Hakeem Olajuwon? Maybe there isn’t an immediate analog. What we are driving at is that MacKinnon is a great player and a future Hall of Famer, but is destined to be overshadowed by his contemporary playing in Edmonton. MacKinnon has had a smattering of injury issues, or he might already be over 400 goals. The one-time first-overall pick is at 367 goals in 870 games, though, and he only just turned 30. Even if he “only” had 32 goals last season, it would take only another five 30-goal seasons to reach 500. That’s workable.

One time, McDavid wanted to get a bunch of goals. He scored 64. The next season, he went all playmaker and managed to score 32 goals while becoming one of the handful of players with 100 assists. If McDavid wanted to focus on scoring goals, he'd have 500 within three seasons. However, sometimes it seems like he prefers to be the best-ever version of Adam Oates. McDavid is 28, he’s over 1,000 points, and he’s won five Art Ross trophies. It’s not implausible that McDavid will end up second in career points. The guy is a living, playing legend.

Kucherov is the most underrated player of his generation. He’s a future Hall of Famer with three Art Ross trophies. The Russian is a bit more of a playmaker, but he can get goals. Kucherov has never gotten to 50, but he’s gotten to 40 three times. The Tampa Bay legend has 357 goals at 32. If he plays another five or six seasons, Kucherov will likely reach 500 goals. We’ll call Kucherov a “probably” as opposed to a “lock it in.”

Forsberg is a maybe, but we think he can get there. He’s the best goal scorer the Predators have ever had. The Swede has tallied over 40 goals twice, but he’s more of a 30-goal regular. With 318 goals at the age of 31, he’s going to have to score a couple of hundred more. Unless Forsberg has another 40-goal season or two, he may have to play until he’s 40, but that’s not all that unusual.

Because Panarin didn’t join the NHL until his age-24 season, he still needs to make up for lost time. “Bread Man” has over 300 goals, but he’s also pushing 34. Panarin will almost definitely have to play until he’s 40 to do it. He does have over 80 goals over the last two campaigns, though. Panarin isn’t a big man, but he doesn’t play a heavy, physical game that takes a toll. There will come a time when Panarin is in shouting distance of 500, and at that point, we expect him to hold on to do it.

Maybe he doesn’t play next to MacKinnon anymore, but the Stars brought in Rantanen to have him as a focal point for the offense. The Finn scored goals left and right in Colorado, posting a season with 42 goals, and another with 55. Things were iffy after he was traded away from the Avalanche last season, but then in the playoffs with the Stars, he took off. He’ll probably get to 300 goals before he turns 29 in October. If Rantanen continues to have 50-goal upside away from Colorado, he’ll get to 500.

Connor gets buckets, to use the basketball parlance. The Michigander plying his trade for Winnipeg has seven 30-goal seasons out of the eight seasons he’s played. The time he was held to 26 goals came in the 2020-21 season, shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Connor is still only 28, and for at least another five seasons, he should be able to fall out of bed and score 30. He’s at 284 goals, though, so that will kind of be necessary. We trust Connor can do it, though.

Can two guys who spend the bulk, or the entirety, of their careers together score 500 goals? Well, if one of them isn’t Wayne Gretzky or Connor McDavid? Matthews has taken advantage of many opportunities in Toronto, but Nylander has found his opportunities as well. In fact, he’s coming off three 40-goal seasons in a row. It took him a little while to get going, though, so he may not get to 300 goals before his 30th birthday. That being said, we did mention the three 40-goal seasons in a row. A couple more of those will make up for things.

Under the radar, DeBrincat has a real opportunity to get to 500 goals. He has two 40-goal campaigns and fell one goal short in the 2024-25 season. The American has over 250 goals, and he’s also not quite 28 yet. Now, he has to basically double his current goal total, but if he played another decade, he’d just have to average 25 goals. That feels possible, as so far DeBrincat has only failed to get to 25 goals in a season once.

We end with some real projection. You’ll note we didn’t include Connor Bedard or a couple of other guys like Matthew Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle. Celebrini, though, seems to have the goods. Now, this is a lot of projection. The first-overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft has played one season. As an 18-year-old, though, he scored 25 goals in 18 games. That’s truly impressive. Celebrini projects to be a 50-goal guy someday. If he doesn’t unexpectedly plateau, he’ll get to 500 goals. You know, 15 years from now or whatever.