Pittsburgh Penguin Sidney Crosby’s Point Projection for the 2025-26 Season

September brings the start of training camp and fantasy hockey. This article helps predict Sidney Crosby‘s point projection for this upcoming year. The Pittsburgh Penguins are a team that’s heading into the season expecting a low finish in the standings. That being said, the organization still possesses numerous offensive weapons capable of providing fantastic value for fantasy hockey owners. The first of our articles projecting the point totals for the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2025-26 season is Captain Sidney Crosby. Crosby, 38 years old, scored 33 goals and 91 points last season over 80 games played.

Sid Still Gets It Done

Our formula being used to project his points and points-per-game this coming season will focus on a few main factors. Moreover, the formula will use a weighted points-per-game, expected games played, age-adjusted and team-adjusted scoring factors, and a breakdown of even-strength versus power play production. To test the formula, Crosby’s totals from 2021-2024 were used to project last season, for 2024-25. The model predicted an expected value of 86 points, whereas Crosby’s actual total was 91, just a 6% difference.

Age Curve and Team Context

Age and team environment are the first adjustments the model applies to establish a baseline. At 38-years-old, Crosby now falls under a 0.89 age modifier, translating to an 11% decline from prime production levels. This represents a regression of about 1% per year through the early 30s.

Team context also matters. Pittsburgh no longer drives offence at even strength to the degree they did during their Stanley Cup contention years. However, their power play remains one of the league’s best. In 2024-25, the Penguins averaged 2.95 goals-per-game (slightly below the 3.01 league average). However, they posted a 25.8% powerplay rate (well above the league’s 21.6% average). The model weights team environment 70% at even strength, 30% on the power play, producing a Team Index of 1.04. Together these factors will help frame how Crosby’s raw scoring history will later be adjusted. Aging pulls him down slightly, but Pittsburgh’s strong power play combats against a negative linear regression.

Games Played

It’s important to project durability to know how likely a player is to hit a certain number of points. A points-per-game rate only goes so far as the player is available to play. The model once again applies a weighted three-year average.

However, we take a baseline for the number of games played as 69 games. This baseline represents the league-wide mean games played for skaters who appeared in at least 41 games over the past three seasons.

In this system, 70% of the projection comes from a player’s own three-year weighted GP, while the other 30% is drawn toward the 69-game baseline. This regression prevents the model from being skewed by one-off injuries or by assuming every player can hit a perfect 82. It ensures the projection reflects the reality of NHL availability, where the “typical” regular skater averages closer to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Sidney Crosby, the input is as follows:

• 2024–25: 80 GP
• 2023–24: 82 GP
• 2022–23: 82 GP

Weighted result: 81 GP
After regression to baseline: 78 GP

This projection expects Crosby to remain one of the more durable veterans in the NHL. While losing even 10–15 games would significantly change his total points outcome, Crosby’s recent history suggests he has defied the usual late-30s breakdown. Far from becoming more fragile with age, his notorious level of conditioning has helped him stay consistently available for the Penguins.

Points-Per-Game (PPG)

Finally, the basis of Crosby’s point projection formula is his scoring rate. The model weights seasons based on the past three seasons, weighing each season differently. The most recent year is weighted as 50%, 30% from two years back, and 20% from three years back. This helps smooth out outlier seasons and helps emphasize the player’s track record appropriately. Here are Crosby’s totals in the past three seasons.

• 2024-25: 91 points in 80 games = 1.14 PPG
• 2023-24: 94 points in 82 games = 1.15 PPG
• 2022-23: 93 points in 82 games = 1.13 PPG

Plugging in those totals with the weighted formula gives us a baseline of 1.14 PPG. In other words, Crosby has been remarkably consistent over the past three years, defying father time better than most.

Sidney Crosby’s Final Point Projection

The Penguins still possess offensive weapons like Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Erik Karlsson to link up with Crosby. For fantasy holders, this means Crosby’s floor is still high. This model accounts for these factors through layering in an age modifier of 0.89, a Team Index of 1.04 from Pittsburgh’s strong power play, and a games played projection of 78 based on his weighted history and normal regression to league baseline. After applying these factors to his three-year weighted scoring rate of 1.14 PPG, Crosby’s PPG projection lands at 1.05. Multiplied by his expected games, Sidney Crosby’s point projection is 82 points for the 2025-26 season.

The model projects 82 points for the Penguins captain this season, which would be down slightly from his 93-point season last year. However, 82 points would be elite production for a player entering his age-38 season. Additionally, the context of Sidney Crosby as a player is important to keep in mind. Where most players would be declining rapidly, Crosby has fought off a decline over the past few seasons. With numerous offensive weapons still on the squad, Crosby could easily reach 90 points again this upcoming season. With this projected points rate, Sidney Crosby is an excellent fantasy pick for those needing scoring this upcoming season. One last note, if Sid can hit our proposed values, it will mark the 21st consecutive time he was a PPG game, a true testament to his greatness in the sport.