Trade-deadline primer: Toronto Maple Leafs

With the All-Star break now behind us, the trade deadline looms large and is less than a month away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

It has been nearly 20 years since the Maple Leafs won a playoff round. Despite six straight appearances in the Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner era, the team hasn’t been able to find any success in the postseason. With another first-round date with the Tampa Bay Lightning all but sealed, every effort from the management staff needs to help get them over the hump.

Remember, Matthews and William Nylander are scheduled for unrestricted free agency after next season, with Marner and John Tavares under contract only through 2024-25. General manager Kyle Dubas is once again looking at making a significant trade-deadline move to try to support this core before it is too late.

Record

31-13-8, second in the Atlantic

Deadline status

Buyer

Deadline cap space

$1.13M in LTIR relief, 0/3 retention slots used, 49/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming draft picks

2023: TOR 1st, TOR 3rd, OTT 3rd, TOR 5th, TOR 6th
2024: TOR 1st, TOR 2nd, TOR 4th, TOR 5th, TOR 6th, TOR 7th, OTT 7th

Trade chips

At last year’s deadline, the Maple Leafs were able to hold onto their first-round pick, moving three seconds and a third for Mark Giordano, Colin Blackwell and Ilya Lyubushkin. This year, that top selection probably has to be on the table in any negotiations that include an impact player. The 2024 first-round pick is also probably in play, but beyond that, there isn’t a ton of draft capital they can move.

So it comes to the prospect pool for Toronto, which is also relatively shallow. Matthew Knies was seemingly untouchable last summer, but perhaps the Maple Leafs would consider moving him this time around in the right deal. Nick Robertson would have been a piece, but given his latest serious injury, he’s likely off the table. Topi Niemela and Roni Hirvonen are mid-level prospects at best that likely can’t bring back a serious difference-maker by themselves.

The focus could turn to some roster players, though that avenue also doesn’t hold much value for rebuilding clubs. Alexander Kerfoot could be included in a deal to clear some cap space, but he shouldn’t really be considered a trade chip. The young defensemen — Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren in particular — are likely too valuable to Toronto’s future to make them available.

Among teams looking to add at the deadline, the Leafs probably have one of the worst asset pools to pull from. That means Dubas and company will have to look for creative ways to improve the roster instead of getting into a bidding war on the top names. It’s hard to imagine them winning a player like Timo Meier, for instance, when they have to compete with deep, young prospect pools like the ones in New Jersey or Buffalo.

That’s not to say they won’t try. Toronto has added every year to try to fill gaps on the roster, and this year should be no different.

Other potential trade chips: F Fraser Minten, F Nick Moldenhauer, F Pierre Engvall, F Pontus Holmberg

Team needs

1) Top-six winger: There is a glaring hole in the Maple Leafs lineup, and it’s been there for a number of years now. The second-line left wing spot has been filled by a number of different players — Kerfoot, Ilya Mikheyev, Alex Galchenyuk, Calle Jarnkrok — but none of them have been a perfect fit. It’s why a player like Meier continues to get linked to Toronto and why every other winger likely will be speculated on in the coming weeks.

2) Third-line center: For a team that is usually considered “loaded” offensively, it might seem weird to see two forwards listed here. The truth is, though, that Toronto is a relatively strong defensive team, with eight capable NHL defensemen on the roster already. Could they improve the back end? Sure. But a true third-line center that can drive some offense would be more valuable.

David Kampf, currently in that role, set a career-high last season with 26 points and has just 32 goals in his 369-game NHL career. One of the problems the Maple Leafs have faced in recent years is that if the Matthews and Tavares lines get shut down, the team has no chance of scoring. Getting someone who can elevate his linemates and drive play on the third line would move them a lot closer than a marginal upgrade on defense.