Wild’s Negotiations with Gustavsson Improved by Samsonov Deal

It took a few years in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) in Russia before he came over to join the Hershey Bears in the American Hockey League (AHL) for the 2018-19 season. The very next season he made the jump to the NHL where he played three seasons with the Capitals producing varying levels of success before they decided to not extend him a qualifying offer, making him a free agent.

Samsonov signed a one-year deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the 2022-23 season worth $1.8 million. In his 42 games played last season, he posted 27 wins while collecting a .919 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.65 goals-against average (GAA). His play dipped in the playoffs where he posted a less-than-ideal .898 SV% and a 3.13 GAA.

Samsonov vs. Gustavsson

From a statistical point of view, Gustavsson was easily the better goaltender last season in both the regular season and the playoffs. His .931 SV% and 2.10 GAA were second in the NHL behind only the Vezina Trophy-winning Linus Ullmark, although he only collected 22 wins compared to Samsonov’s impressive 27. Evolving Hockey’s analysis of goals saved above expected (GSAx) also had Gustavsson ahead at 24.54 compared to Samsonov’s 21.24.

Where Samsonov does have the major edge is in the experience category. In four seasons he has collected 131 games played with 119 of them being starts, which is double Gustavsson’s 66 games played and 60 starts. Gustavsson’s path has been much bumpier despite also being a highly touted prospect as he too collected some hardware at the World Juniors. 

After being the 55th overall pick in 2016, Gustavsson gained some valuable experience in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL) before coming to the AHL during the 2017-18 season. After struggling in the AHL for a couple of seasons, even being sent to the ECHL for a stint, injuries paved a path to the NHL in 2020-21 for just nine games where he showed a flash of his available talent. He bounced between the NHL and AHL again in 2021-22 before finally being traded to the Wild and having his breakout season. While the hope is that he is that good of a goaltender, the reality is there is always the chance he struggles to find that form again.

Impacts On the Wild

One of the largest factors in these considerations is that despite a down season in 2021-22, Samsonov has been a fairly solid goaltender since he entered the league in 2019, giving the arbitrators a much larger sample size to base their decision on. Gustavsson really only has last season to go off of, and while it was very impressive, there is no possible way to know if he will be able to repeat those results in 2023-24.

The arbitrators valuing Samsonov at $3.55 million means that the Wild can expect Gustavsson’s number to come in slightly under that if they go to arbitration. Samsonov’s experience gave him a much stronger case to present at the arbitration hearing and the end number still slightly favors the Leafs. The Wild may be able to use this to their advantage and try to negotiate a deal within the coming weeks with the intention of avoiding the grueling arbitration process.

The End is Nigh

While Gustavsson had obviously been the more important priority this offseason, it is worth remembering that the Wild also still have to sign Calen Addison. He is likely anxiously waiting for Gustavsson’s cap hit to be announced as his next contract will be directly impacted by how much room is left for the cap-strapped Wild. With both deals likely to come one after another in fairly short order, the Wild’s roster will basically be set, with the only real question mark being if Marco Rossi can claim, and hold on to, a roster spot out of training camp.