Aug 31, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Indiana Fever head coach Stephanie White talks to media members before the game against the Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

ESPN's Fresh Fever WNBA Playoff Prediction After Valkyries Loss Speaks Volumes

Originally posted on Indiana Fever on SI | By Grant Young | Last updated Sep 1, 2025 3:18 PM ET

Every game feels like a must-win for the Indiana Fever right now, especially any game against the Seattle Storm, the Los Angeles Sparks, and the Golden State Valkyries, as these four teams are battling it out for the final three WNBA postseason positions.

The Fever happened to play these three teams in their three most recent games. And the good news is that they emerge victorious against the Storm on August 26 and the Sparks on August 31. However, their winning ways came to an end on August 31, as Indiana came up short against Golden State by a score of 75-63.

As a result of this loss on Sunday, the Fever not only were swept by the Valkyries during the 2025 season but fell from the No. 6 seed to the No. 8 seed in the standings.

ESPN Updates Indiana Fever's WNBA Playoff, Finals, Championship Chances

On ESPN's website, they have what's called a WNBA Basketball Power Index 2025, which gives percentage chances for each team to make the playoffs and advance to each ensuing round once they make it to the postseason.

Back on August 27 (the day after they beat the Seattle Storm), the Fever were given a 96.2% chance to make the playoffs, a 34.2% chance to advance to the second round, a 14.1% chance to make it to the WNBA Finals, and a 3.1% chance to win a WNBA championship this season, according to ESPN's website.

Those odds have now shifted in the Fever's favor (at least in terms of making it to the playoffs), despite Sunday's defeat to the Valkyries. They now have a 97.4% chance of making the playoffs, a 32.5% chance of making the second round, a 12.5% chance of making it to the WNBA Finals, and a 2.4% chance of winning a WNBA championship.

ESPN Power Index now gives Indiana Fever a 97.4% chance of making the playoffs and projects them to finish 7th seed, but really 8th after rounding wins for Indy & Valks. We don’t want the 8th seed & that 1st-round matchup with the Lynx. https://t.co/v7kZF09LnX
— Stavros (@StavrosForever) September 1, 2025

Ultimately, the Fever have got to be feeling good about their chances of making the playoffs right now, as all they probably need to do is win 1-2 more games in order to secure their position.

But it's not just about making the playoffs. The Minnesota Lynx have been the WNBA's most dominant team by far this season, and will be a force for any No. 8 seed to reckon with. While the league's other top teams are also great, they have more weaknesses and holes than Minnesota.

Therefore, the Fever would be wise to win a couple more games and avoid that No. 8 seed so they don't need to see the Lynx in the first round.

This article first appeared on Indiana Fever on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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