2010 Bill James Projections

The 2010 projections are starting to come out so we can begin to get a better idea of how this team may do and what they need to this offseason to be a contender. Below are James’ projections for the hitters. Hitter AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO Avg OBP Slg Lee,Derrek 595 173 40 2 30 79 127 .291 .378 .516 Fox,Jake 218 62 16 1 13 16 44 .284 .339 .546 Ramirez,Aramis 506 148 32 1 26 49 74 .292 .364 .514 Bradley,Milton 467 129 25 1 18 75 113 .276 .384 .450 Soto,Geovany 473 129 31 1 20 63 106 .273 .361 .469 Hoffpauir,Micah 156 43 10 1 7 12 27 .276 .331 .487 Soriano,Alfonso 567 149 35 1 30 43 137 .263 .320 .487 Baker,Jeff 322 90 21 2 11 27 72 .280 .337 .460 Fukudome,Kosuke 520 138 39 3 13 79 120 .265 .365 .427 Fontenot,Mike 359 98 23 2 8 37 69 .273 .343 .415 Johnson,Reed 342 93 19 1 7 22 66 .272 .336 .395 Colvin,Tyler 125 33 6 1 4 7 24 .264 .303 .424 Theriot,Ryan 599 170 26 3 4 60 79 .284 .352 .357 Fuld,Sam 115 30 6 1 1 14 11 .261 .346 .357 Miles,Aaron 124 34 6 1 1 7 15 .274 .318 .363 Blanco,Andres 172 44 8 1 2 10 20 .256 .301 .349 Hill,Koyie 218 51 13 0 4 19 52 .234 .295 .349 Not too surprisingly, Derrek Lee is projected to be the best of the bunch. Fox has the next highest OPS, which is probably a bit absurd. Still, the Cubs might have to figure out a way to get him some playing time. Below are the pitchers (James does not do them, BIS does). Pitcher ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO HB BR/9 Harden,Rich 3.33 24 24 135 107 14 59 147 4 11.3 Marmol,Carlos 3.45 74 0 73 52 6 45 84 7 12.8 Gregg,Kevin 3.60 67 0 65 58 7 27 60 3 12.2 Zambrano,Carlos 3.60 29 29 180 155 15 80 151 9 12.2 Lilly,Ted 3.76 25 25 170 155 24 56 144 4 11.4 Dempster,Ryan 3.83 30 30 195 183 18 81 167 6 12.5 Heilman,Aaron 3.88 66 0 72 66 8 31 63 4 12.6 Grabow,John 4.00 78 0 72 67 7 34 61 2 12.9 Guzman,Angel 4.03 50 0 58 55 6 25 53 4 13.0 Marshall,Sean 4.06 51 6 71 70 8 27 53 3 12.7 Gorzelanny,Tom 4.11 29 14 81 80 7 32 64 5 13.0 Wells,Randy 4.16 30 30 188 194 20 60 147 14 12.8 Caridad,Esmailin 4.85 27 0 39 39 6 13 30 7 13.6 Samardzija,Jeff 5.44 20 4 43 46 7 19 32 6 14.9 It’s pretty sad that the Cubs are going to let the best Cubs pitcher walk when they could sign him for around $10 million. Zambrano is projected to be the best among the other starters. Berselius provided some playing time estimates for the players so we could get an idea how good this team is right now. I’ve used the WAR calculator from Beyond The Boxscore. For the batters, I calculated their wOBA by using last year’s HBP, ROE and Sacrifices. Bill James doesn’t provide those. I’ve used 2009 EQBRR for baserunning and 2009 UZR for fielding. Here were the playing time estimates: Soto - 510 Lee - 635 Fontenot - 410 Baker - 240 Theriot - 670 Ramirez - 580 Soriano - 645 Fukudome - 600 Zambrano - 185 Dempster - 190 Lilly - 199 Wells - 160 Gorzelanny - 170 Samardzija - 56 Marmol - 65 Grabow - 70 Heilman - 80 Guzman - 35 Marshall - 75 Per 700 PAs Hitter Pos PA wOBA Hit BR Pos Fld Rep WAR FA $ WAR Geovany Soto CA 510 .368 2.01 -0.18 1.25 0.50 2.00 5.58 $18.7 4.1 Derrek Lee 1B 635 .403 4.14 0.08 -1.25 0.34 2.00 5.31 $22.1 4.8 Mike Fontenot 2B 410 .343 0.49 -0.13 0.25 0.22 2.00 2.83 $7.9 1.7 Jeff Baker 2B 240 .355 1.22 0.00 0.25 0.30 2.00 3.77 $6.2 1.3 Ryan Theriot SS 670 .328 -0.43 -0.15 0.75 0.58 2.00 2.75 $12.3 2.6 Aramis Ramirez 3B 580 .384 2.98 -0.27 0.25 -0.34 2.00 4.62 $17.6 3.8 Alfonso Soriano LF 645 .352 1.03 -0.16 -0.75 -1.16 2.00 0.96 $4.4 0.9 Kosuke Fukudome CF 600 .366 1.89 -0.33 0.25 -1.00 2.00 2.81 $11.2 2.4 For the pitchers I just calculated the pitcher’s FIP. Pitcher S/R IP ERA LEV FA $ WAR Carlos Zambrano S 185 4.09 1.0 $12.7 2.7 Ted Lilly S 199 4.40 1.0 $10.3 2.2 Ryan Dempster S 190 4.03 1.0 $13.7 2.9 Randy Wells S 160 4.20 1.0 $10.1 2.1 Tom Gorzelanny S 170 4.11 1.0 $11.5 2.5 Jeff Samardzija S 56 5.57 1.0 $0.2 0.0 Carlos Marmol R 65 4.10 1.8 $2.8 0.5 John Grabow R 70 4.27 1.3 $1.5 0.2 Angel Guzman R 35 4.22 1.0 $0.9 0.1 Sean Marshall R 75 4.44 0.9 $0.6 0.0 Aaron Heilman R 80 4.35 0.8 $0.9 0.1 Esmailin Caridad R 39 5.20 0.7 -$0.5 -0.2 Replacement Level R 141 4.50 0.6 $0.4 0.0 All of that adds up like this: Group WAA WAR Hit 10.6 BR -0.9 Field -0.7 Hitters 21.6 Pitchers 13.3 Total WAR 34.9 Total FA $ $157.7 Win Talent 83.4 The Cubs are starting out as an 83-84 win team. Bradley is projected to get 553 plate appearances and would be worth 2.5 WAR. Rich Harden is projected to pitch 135 innings and would also be worth 2.5 WAR. All the Cubs would have to do to be an 88-89 win team right now would be re-sign Rich Harden for around $8-10 million. That’s it. For some reason the Cubs are intent on not being very good next season so they won’t do that.