PLAYERS: Angel Guzman, Tom Gorzelanny, Derrek Lee, Geovany Soto, Aramis Ramirez, Jake Fox, Milton Bradley, Alfonso Soriano, Mike Fontenot, Micah Hoffpauir, Kosuke Fukudome, Randy Wells, Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Marmol, John Grabow, Aaron Heilman, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, Andres Blanco, Koyie Hill, Reed Johnson, Tyler Colvin, Ryan Theriot, Jeff Baker, Aaron Miles
Fangraphs is once again going to list the projections on their player pages from a variety of sources, Bill James, CHONE, Marcel....maybe more. Bill James projections are up first and here's how the Cubs ranked by wOBA and their 2009 wOBA (explanation of wOBA here). I'll try and expand when new projections are released. Age is their 2010 playing age. You can click on their names to get their full slash line predictions and more.
Player
Age
2009 wOBA
Bill James 2010 wOBA Projection
Derrek Lee
34 .412 .386 Aramis Ramirez
32
.392
.375
Jake Fox
27 .332 .375
Milton Bradley
32
.345
.365 Geovany Soto
27 .310 .362 Micah Hoffpauir
30
.315 .350 Kosuke Fukudome
33 .346 .349 Jeff Baker
29
.338 346 Alfonso Soriano 34
.314 .346 Mike Fontenot
30
.296 .334 Ryan Theriot
30
.318
.319
Sam Fuld
28
.367 .317 Tyler Colvin
24 .205 .316
Reed Johnson
33
.321 .312
Aaron Miles
33
.212
.300 Koyie Hill
31
.279
.289
Andres Blanco
26
.271 .285
For the pitchers, here's their projected ERA and FIP (explanation of FIP here).
PlayerAge 2009 ERA
2009 FIP
2010 James Projected ERA
2010 James Projected FIP
Carlos Zambrano 29 3.77 3.61 3.60 3.90 Ted Lilly
34 3.10
3.65
3.76
4.30
Ryan Dempster
33
3.65
3.87
3.83
3.92
Randy Wells
27
3.05
3.88
4.16
4.10
Sean Marshall
27
4.32
4.19
4.06
4.34
Tom Gorzelanny
27 5.55
3.91
4.11 4.01 Jeff Samardzija
25 7.53
5.90
5.44
5.47
Carlos Marmol
27 3.41
4.06
3.45 4.00
John Grabow
31 3.36 4.20
4.00
4.17
Aaron Heilman
31
4.11
4.37
3.88
4.25
Angel Guzman
28
2.95 4.44 4.03
4.11
Alright, nothing too surprising in any of these numbers, although I can't tell you how much it makes my heart flutter to see the Cubs highest paid position player in the middle of the offensive pack.
Two pitchers stood out to me...Gorzelanny and Guzman. I was a bit down on Gorzelanny but his peripherals were pretty strong last year...9 K/9 rate and a 1.15 HR/9 to go with a 3.26 BB/9 rate. Definitely a legitimate 4th/5th starter candidate with an even higher ceiling considering his age and the very nice 2007 season he had. Guzman on the other hand, had a mere 6.93 K/9 rate last year with a 3.39 BB/9 rate with a miniscule .209 BABIP. A little luckier than I had previously thought, but he does keep the ball in the park and the James projections do expect an increase in his K/9 rate...although no guess on when he'll hit the disabled list.
Anyway, they're merely projections, nothing to take too seriously. They sure didn't nail Soto, Soriano or Fontenot's demise last year, so just consider it some fun off-season fodder.
Be sure you don't miss Arizona Phil's Top 15 prospect list...
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