Early Central Division Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

As promised, I am taking a very early look at the teams in the Central Division, beginning with the Milwaukee Bucks. I have to leave my usual comfort zone of the Chicago Bulls world for this series, but I think Bulls fans should know who they're competing with in the division. Fans of the other teams in the division might also be amused to see how well I think I know their teams, and I encourage them to enlighten me of how accurate or inaccurate my perceptions are. Look for previews of the other teams in the division soon, with the Chicago Bulls saved for last. Record Last Year: 34-48, 5th in Central Division, 12th in East Who's New: G Brandon Jennings (draft), SG Jodie Meeks (draft), SF Bruce Bowen, F Amir Johnson, PF/C Kurt Thomas Who's Gone: SF Richard Jefferson Free Agents: PG Ramon Sessions (restricted), SG Keith Bogans, G Damon Jones, SF Ersan Ilyasova (restricted), PF Malik Allen (player option), PF Charlie Villanueva (restricted), C Francisco Elson (player option) Estimated Salary Cap Status (excluding draft picks): $56.7 million definitely committed for 09-10 (estimated $58 million cap) Strengths: The Bucks still have one proven star in Michael Redd, a shooting guard with size who can shoot the lights out and defend very well. However, he will be 30 when the season starts, and his supporting cast is weak. C Andrew Bogut is an efficient player (18.2 PER last season, 14.3 for his opponents' counterparts) who rebounds well and plays solid defense. PF Charlie Villanueva averaged 21.7 points and 8.9 rebounds per 36 minutes last season, but his game is inconsistent and his D needs work. Ramon Sessions had a respectable 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio last year, and he's developing into a legitimate starting point guard (and at $711.5 K last season, he was a serious bargain). While overpaid for a backup, Luke Ridnour is a decent PG behind Sessions. Kurt Thomas is on his last legs, but he is still a good low post defender that could prove serviceable off the bench. If Bowen sticks around, he'll provide stellar defense on perimeter players. Jennings is very athletic and talented, and he may become a very good point guard if he learns all the tricks of the trade (such as decision-making and guarding quick Rondo-types). Meeks could be a solid scoring threat off the bench in a poor man's Eddie House role. Weaknesses: By trading the team's second best player, Richard Jefferson, the Bucks have signaled their intent to dump salary and rebuild. SF Bruce Bowen's contract is non-guaranteed, and, while he and Gregg Popovich reportedly have beef, I could see the Bucks passing on his contract and him ending up back in San Antonio. While Jennings is freakishly athletic, he's not a true point guard and doesn't have the build (6'1", 170 lbs) to play shooting guard, so he's a work in progress. The post presence is pretty poor with this group (team position PER ranks of 29 at center - with Bogut missing load of time from injury - and 15 last year), and this team will have to pray that Sessions and Redd stay healthy throughout the season if they want a productive backcourt. Scoring is going to be difficult for a team that averaged under 100 points per game last year, especially with Jefferson gone and nobody to fill that void. This team really has a weak bench, and injuries to key players will hit this team hard. Outlook: Since they are rebuilding (and I applaud them for choosing that route), I doubt that they are done making moves. I also doubt that they will improve their record from last year, and I feel confident predicting another lottery pick in next year's draft for the Bucks. Even if this team manages to stay healthy for 82 games, they simply don't have the talent to do any better than 8th in the East, and even that seems like a reach with the current crop of players. The Bucks will probably look into getting value for Redd in some deal and try to build around Bogut and Jennings. I'm interested to see what this team will look like in two years. Prediction: 30-52, 5th in Central Division, 13th in East -Salary Info. From HoopsHype -Advanced Info. From Basketball-Reference & 82Games -Additional Player Info. From ESPN & Yahoo!