New York Jets (6-7) at Tennessee Titans (4-9)
The Titans are 4-9, which isn’t very good at all, but if you can believe it, they’re even worse than their record. Of their 9 losses, 5 have come by 21 or more and only one of their 4 wins have come by more than a field goal. As a result, they rank 29th in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA. The Jets aren’t as good as their 6-7 record either, as they are 24th in net points per drive and DVOA and 25th in weighted DVOA, but the Titans don’t deserve to be favorites here.
Using the net points per drive method, the Jets should be 1.5 point favorites here. The Titans are at -0.76 in points per drive and the Jets are at -0.38. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 to Tennessee’s side for home field, you get that the Jets should be 1.5 point favorites, rather than the Titans being that.
The Jets also have the trends on their side. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before be...