Tyler Hissey on Jeter versus Rollins:
Remember the Team USA shortstop controversy from the World Baseball Classic? Many analysts and sports writers--myself among them--argued that New York Yankees star Derek Jeter had no business starting over Jimmy Rollins of the Philadelphia Phillies.
It was not just a traditional-sabermetric debate, either, as even mainstream writers questioned why Rollins was not the starter. Jeter was the face of the event, of course, but, with his age and defensive limitations, was viewed as the weaker shortstop of the pair.
Ken Rosenthal chimed in on the subject in a March 18 column at FoxSports.com:
For Team USA to have its best chance of winning the World Baseball Classic, Jimmy Rollins should be at shortstop instead of Derek Jeter.
...Twice, Jeter failed to stop balls to his left that Rollins might have at least knocked down, and both led directly to runs. If Team USA had not secured its dramatic 6-5 victory over Puerto Rico by staging a three-run rally in the ninth inning, Jeter's defense would have come under heavy scrutiny.
Jeter, who turns 35 on June 26, is 4 1/2 years older than Rollins. His defensive decline is not exactly a secret within the industry; the sabermetric community, in particular, has pointed out his inadequacies.
I, too, agreed with Rosenthal, who was right to bring that up given what was known at the time.
Jeter had a solid offensive season for a shortstop in 2008, batting .300/.363/.408 with a 102 OPS+. Indeed, there were not too many shortstops who posted that level of slash stats line. What was most concerning, on a pure offensive level, were his decline trends: his Isolated Power, OPS, OPS+ and slugging percentage all dropped for the third year in a row. Given his age, that was expected.
As well, Jeter also continued to grade out below average on defense. According to Ultimate Zone Rating, in fact, he was worth -37.7 runs below average from 2005-'08. He was still a 3.5-to-4.0-win player (based on Wins Above Replacement, WAR) and was only two years removed from a near-MVP performance in 2006, but it appeared that he was finally entering the decline phase of his illustrious career.
Rollins, on the other hand, was coming off a two-year stretch in which he batted .288/.346/.490 and amassed a combined 12.0 WAR. The superior defender, he registered a 12.8 UZR and 15.0 UZR/150 in 1,168,0 innings at short in '08.
Combined with a few notable balls that got through, these factors led to the minor shortstop controversy. Since then, though, the Team USA teammates have each gone in surprisingly different directions.
Jeter, at 35, has been incredible offensively this season, batting .331/.395/.471 with a 127 OPS+ in 540 plate appearances for American League East-leading New York. He has also chipped in 15 home runs, his highest total since '05, and has swiped 21 bases in 25 chances. As well, Jeter ranks third among major league shortstops--behind Hanley Ramirez and Jason Bartlett (seriously, Jason Bartlett, your 2008 Tampa Bay Rays Team M.V.P.!)--with a .385 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). For those scoring at home, that number falls in the vicinity of his incredible .399 WoBA from '06, when he hit .343/.417/.483 and posted the second-highest OPS+, 132, total of his career.
True, playing in New Yankee Stadium has helped Jeter out in the power department. Eleven of his homers have come at home, leading to his spike in IsoP and slugging percentage. He has actually hit everywhere, though, batting .343/.398/.449 on the road and .319/.392/.496 at home. Also, his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. The man has just been a force in the Yankees' lineup.
Perhaps most surprising, Jeter is also having his best statistical defensive season since data became available in 2002. Certainly, the sample size is small and UZR is known to fluctuate wildly in certain instances, but he has been worth 5.6 runs above average and 8.1 runs above average per 150 games. When factoring in the improved defense and offensive rebound as well as his position, he has provided New York with an incredible 5.3 WAR, valued at $24.0-M. The Captain is earning his paycheck and then some, ranking as the seventh most valuable player in baseball--and third in the A.L, behind Joe Mauer and Ben Zobrist but ahead of teammate Mark Teixeira--in the category.
Indeed, Jeter has been the best player on the best team in baseball. At 35. And the oft-discussed intangibles, while overblown, count for something, too.
Five years younger, the 30-year-old Rollins has drifted off in the opposite direction. He is batting only .242/.290/.410 with an 80 OPS+. Overall, he has been worth -11.9 runs below average, bringing down a potent Phillies offense. His defense has remained a plus (5.2 UZR, 6.5 UZR/150), but his tremendous offensive struggles have really deflated his overall value, as he has put up only 1.6 WAR; his defense and position are the only factors keeping the total in the black.
Is Jeter as good of a fielder as he has been given credit for? Probably not. He has reportedly made an effort to improve his positioning, though, and truly is having a respectable defensive campaign. On offense, he is performing at an elite level, even for his standards.
It is way to early to give up on Rollins, who is going through a nightmare slump but should pick it up eventually. However, it is hard not to imagine how much larger of a lead Philadelphia would have in the National League East standings if the former M.V.P. had been playing up to form.
Having watched their seasons unfold, I kept going back to the WBC debate. Perhaps all of the talk about how Jeter did not deserve to be playing so much for Team USA was misguided, after all. And, despite what I wrote about him this spring, there are still a few exciting chapters left in the Jeter book.
Original Story:
http://mvn.com/aroundthemajors/2009/0...
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