Originally posted on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 1/15/13
Yesterday, Jeff Zimmerman examined how Tim Lincecum‘s performance has depended to some extent on his ability to pitch to the edges of the plate. Last year, Lincecum was one of the worst starters in the game in terms of the percentage of his pitches thrown to the black. Coincidently (or not so coincidently), Lincecum suffered through his worst season as a professional. As with many things, Jeff and I happened to be investigating this issue of the edge simultaneously. Of course, we were not the first to dabble in this area. Back in 2009, Dave Allen noted that differences in pitch location–specifically horizontal location–led to differences in BABIP. Like Dave, I was curious about the overall impact that throwing to the edges–or the black–has on overall performance. My thinking about pitchers throwing to the edges naturally led to some hypotheses: Throwing a higher percentage of pitches on the edges leads to lower FIP. Throwing a higher percentage of pitches on the edges leads to lower ERA. Throwing a higher percentage of pitches on the edges leads to lower BABIP. Throwing a higher percentage of pitches on the edges leads is associated with lower fastball velocity. I think the first three hypotheses are intuitive, but the last one stems from the idea that as a pitcher ages and loses zip on their fastball they cannot remain successful unless they increase their avoidance of the heart of the strike zone. Jeff and I are still tinkering with the methodology. For this article, I decided to classify the edge as the area three inches (essentially, about the width of a baseball) to the left or the right of each side of the strike zone. I also adjusted the zone for right and left-handed batters per Mike Fast’s work (see here): Edge for right-handed batters: px =-1.265 & px >=.75 AND px Edge for left-handed batters: px =-1.35 & px >=.845 AND px For frame of reference, I calculated the Edge% (i.e. the percent of all pitches thrown that qualify as being on either edge) for all qualified pitchers since 2007 and broke them out into percentiles: Percentile Edge% 90th 21.0% 75th 19.7% 50th 18.6% 25th 17.3% When we look at the average performance of pitchers in each percentile and compare them to each other, a few interesting patterns emerge*: And here are some basic correlations: First, our initial hypothesis that the more a pitchers throws to the edges the higher their strikeouts and lower their walks is confirmed. The correlation between Edge% and K% is .29, and Edge% and BB% is -.10. Moreover, the difference in average K% between the top decile and bottom quarter of edge throwers is almost 3%. The difference is less stark when it comes to BB% (~.6%). This pattern holds pretty well across a number of metrics, including BABIP (>=90th minus Pitchers that work the edges more also see higher swings outside the zone, along with less contact. What was interesting was that pitchers did not seem to sort around fastball velocity the way I assumed they would. In fact, pitchers that worked the edges the most threw their four-seam fastball about 1 mph harder than those with the worst Edge%. So that’s the high-level, how does this actually look for specific pitchers? Taking a quick glance at the data I found two pitchers that nicely illustrate how changes in their Edge% correspond to their overall improvement: Doug Fister and David Price. Fister came up with Seattle in 2009 and posted decent, but not outstanding, numbers (96 ERA-, 120 FIP-). That year, Fister flirted with top quartile performance in terms of Edge% (19%). The following year, however, Fister’s Edge% dropped below the 50th percentile (18.2%), and with it his ERA- jumped to 106 and his K% and SwgStr% tumbled (12.9% and 4.4%, respectively). Fister did manage to post an above-average FIP, but this was mostly due to cutting his HR/FB by over half in 2010. In 2011, Fister broke out. His Edge% jumped into elite range (21%) and he posted ERA- and FIP- that were also in elite company (73 and 78, respectively). Additionally, Fister’s K% jumped to 16.7%, and would further jump to 20.4% the following year: Year Edge% ERA- FIP- K% SwgStr% 2009 19.0% 96 120 14.1% 6.9% 2010 18.2% 106 93 12.9% 4.4% 2011 21.0% 73 78 16.7% 6.7% 2012 21.5% 83 81 20.4% 8.0% We see a similar story for David Price. After a brief call-up with the Rays in 2008, Price entered the rotation in 2009 and posted a slightly below average ERA- and FIP-. In 2010, Price elevated his already good Edge% to elite status (21.2%) and saw his ERA- and FIP- plummet. Price has since maintained that elite Edge%–even improving it to a league-leading 22.5% in 2012–and along with it he had arguably his best season in 2012 (66 ERA-, 77 FIP-, 24.5% K%). Year Edge% ERA- FIP- K% SwgStr% 2009 19.4% 104 109 18.3% 7.5% 2010 21.2% 69 86 21.8% 9.8% 2011 21.4% 90 86 23.8% 8.4% 2012 22.5% 66 77 24.5% 8.3% None of this is to say that Edge% is the explanation for pitcher performance. However, the preliminary results show a pretty good relationship between pitchers adjusting their approach and learning to control the edges of the zone better and a corresponding change in their overall performance. Jeff and I are continuing to work on this topic. For example, we think it makes sense to take Edge% and look at it in the context of counts. Are pitchers more successful throwing fastballs in fastball counts because they largely throw those fastballs on the edges? Does throwing to the edges account for why some pitchers have a higher percentage of strikeouts due to called strike threes? Needles to say there are a number of places one can go with this, and we’ll be exploring a number of them in the coming weeks. ————- *Because of the changes made to how PITCHf/x classifies pitches, the data for pitch-type classifications only uses 2010-2012 data.
MORE FROM YARDBARKER:
One Gotta Go: NFL Legends (and Jose Canseco!) Have No Love For Captain America
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Brandon Jennings takes swipe at Reggie Miller's career

Report: Kaepernick facing ‘uphill battle’ to make roster

Djokovic says ‘private issues’ cost him chance at grand slam

Colin Kaepernick on national anthem: 'I'll continue to sit'

Stephen Jones: Cowboys 'look forward' to starting Prescott

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Stanton has 'slim chance' of returning for final week?

Kubiak hinting that Siemian is favorite for Broncos' QB job?

John Harbaugh: NFL needs to make changes to preseason

Romo expected to miss 6-10 weeks with broken bone in back

Kaepernick explains why he is protesting national anthem

Dwyane Wade’s cousin shot and killed in Chicago

A sports history of not standing up for the national anthem

Heading into the homestretch: 2016 ROY favorites

Premier League notebook: The love affair at Man U

One Gotta Go: NFL legends talking comedians is no joke

It's all about timing: The evolution of the clock in sports

Predicting the unpredictable: Your MTV VMAs rundown

10 great moments in the career of Roberto Duran

Marshall’s first impression of Fitzpatrick: ‘He was terrible’

One Gotta Go: NFL legends bring the hate for fast food

What you need to know about the Champions League draw

Six worst quarterback situations in the NFL

Can the San Francisco Giants bust their teamwide slump?

All Sports News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

A sports history of not standing up for the national anthem

Premier League notebook: The love affair at Man U

Heading into the homestretch: 2016 ROY favorites

One Gotta Go: NFL legends talking comedians is no joke

It's all about timing: The evolution of the clock in sports

Predicting the unpredictable: Your MTV VMAs rundown

10 great moments in the career of Roberto Duran

The 20 best boxing movies of all time

One Gotta Go: NFL legends bring the hate for fast food

What you need to know about the Champions League draw

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker