Trade winds a blowing! (I feel a Draft)

Posted March 21, 2013

It looks like the Eagles are done with free agency at this point (unless an unexpected player gets cut and they can get him on the "cheap"). So what now?

I think the Eagles are looking at their roster and determining who is a good fit, and who might be expendable. QB Foles is a player that a lot of experts think "doesn't fit" the Kelly scheme. Which is true if Kelly wants to run the high tempo/pistol/read option offense. So Foles is still the most likely to be traded to a QB desperate team (which are quite a few). Now that the Chiefs have traded for Alex Smith, the most likely landing spot for Foles would be the NY Jets (esp since Marty Mornhinweg is their new offensive coordinator and Foles has a strong arm to battle the cold/windy NY elements). Would it be a straight up trade? Or could this possibly be another blockbuster deal which could land CB Darrelle Revis? If the Tampa Bay Bucs aren't able to make a move for Revis, and the Jets come to the realization that they might not be able to land a high 1st round pick for him, don't rule out the trade possibility. My guess would be a combination of draft picks/swap etc. Foles and our 2nd? Foles/1st round pick swap/future conditional pick? Your guess is as good as mine. Given the Eagles really only have one decent staring CB (Cary Williams) this COULD make sense. This also depends on how the Eagles feel about CB Bradly Fletcher.

Kelly has opted for a few of his previous Oregon players in free agency (QB Dixon and SS Chung). He knows what he's getting, and players who are familiar with his coaching style. Does this mean that the Eagles will draft OLB Dion Jordan with the 4th overall pick? I'm not sure this would be the Eagles choice. With the recent signing of OLB/DE Connor Barwin, I think the Eagles filled the need they were lacking. While some may think we could also use another OLB, I think the Eagles believe they have a player who is better suited to be a 3-4 rush end than a 4-3 end in Brandon Graham (think Lamar Woodley of the Steelers). Given the signing of Barwin, I think the Eagles concentrate on their options at either OT/G or DL. So who's the pick?

As I stated in another discussion, I still think QB Geno Smith is our biggest pawn in the draft. While we now see the Chiefs/Jaguars posturing with private workouts/he's our guy talk, I don't think anyone is biting. The cost of acquiring the #1/#2 pick is way too steep for a player that many believe will be over drafted before slot #15 (or later pending on his "true" value). Everyone knows that QB is the most sought after position, so it is not out of the question that the Eagles move down a few slots to acquire more picks in a deep draft. Some of the possibilities include: Browns at #6, Cardinals at #7 (Drew Stanton? Please), Bills at #8 or Jets at #9. This again all depends on how much value the Eagles place on the top talent in this years draft (OT Luke Joeckel or OT Eric Fisher). I'm starting to think these are the ONLY two players the Eagles will consider standing pat for at pick #4 (mostly due to the health concerns of DT/DE Star Lotuleilei who's stock has taken a slight hit due to health concerns). I still believe Star is our BEST choice if we are going defense, so his private workout could also play a role in deciding who to pick at #4. DT Shariff Floyd could also be an interesting pick, so that might be a bit of a "monkey wrench" in this discussion.

While some players are "best at their position" (i.e. CB Dee Milliner/G Chance Womack) I think that picking them at spot #4 would be considered too high (even though they still are good picks). While the top 5 in the NFL draft is usually considered to be the best place for elite talent, this year is different (since there really is no CLEAR #1 overall pick). I also don't think there is much difference in terms of player value with picks #6-#15. So if the Eagles don't see much of a difference between players like: OT Lane Johnson, OLB Jarvis Jones, CB Dee Milliner, OG Johnathan Cooper, OLB Dion Jordan etc. Along with the descending stock status of DE/DT Star Lotuleilei and undervalued position of Guard (Chance Womack) etc. Why not trade down?

This is the perfect year to acquire more picks, and we are in a unique position of drafting in the top 5 (and have assets teams are in dire need of in QB Foles). This off season is proving to be very interesting. And we are just about one short month of finding out what the Eagles true intentions will be. Stay tuned!

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