Originally written on Clubhouse GM  |  Last updated 10/24/14
Everyone knows this is a Baseball site.  That said; every year on the first Saturday in May one of my favorite sporting events takes place.  No, not the annual Floyd Mayweather Jr. comeback fight (though I do enjoy boxing as well).  The event I look forward to most is the ‘Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports’, the Kentucky Derby.  I lived in Louisville, KY for about a year after I graduated from Michigan State.  I liked watching the Derby with family and friends before that, but after spending some (ok, a lot – they had cheap beers and dollar dogs) of time at Churchill Downs I became a huge fan.  There’s nothing like the rush of 20 thoroughbreds stampeding past the wire as the crowd goes wild hoping to cash in on their big bets.  Rags to Riches!  I’ll admit this year I haven’t followed the horses and races leading up to the Derby as much as I usually do, but over the past couple days I’ve done my research on the top contenders.  When I do research I look at many areas, including; How have they done in their last couple races (what position they finished, the competition, the comments from the race and last but not least their Bayer speed rating), their overall record since they started racing, their post position, their pedigree (who are their parents and grandparents) and their connections (owner, trainer and jockey).  Everybody has a preference for what they think is most important, which is part of the reason for all of the excitement, but I tend to look at 3 things more than the rest; how they’ve run recently, their jockey and their speed ratings. Here are the horses that will enter the starting gate for the 138th Kentucky Derby.  I list them in reverse order based on who I think has the best shot to win. Long Shots (I'd be shocked if they won) We all know the story of Mine That Bird and Giacamo in recent years; winning the Run for the Roses as huge underdogs, but that is definitely the exception and doesn’t happen very often.  The following horses should go off at pretty long odds and although any horse can win it, I’d say their chances are pretty slim.
My Adonis – Only gets into the race if one of the other horses drops out before Friday morning.
Done Talking Odds – 50 to 1 Post Position – 17 Jockey - Sheldon Russell Trainer - Hamilton Smith Owner- Skeedattle Stables Sire- Broken Vox Dam – Dixie Talking (Dixieland Band) Last Race – 1st in Illinois Derby (92) angled in, gained btw Next to Last Race- 10th in Gotham (81) had no rally Lifetime Record – 7 races, 3 win, 0 place, 2 show  Lifetime earnings - $381,000
Liason Odds – 50 to 1 Post Position – 20 Jockey – Martin Garcia Trainer – Bob Baffert Owner – Arnold Zetcher Sire – Indian Charlie Dam – Galloping Gal (Victory Gallop) Last Race – 7th in Santa Anita Derby (87) bit tight, no bid Next to Last Race – 4th in San Felipe (96) came out a bit, no bid Lifetime Record – 7 races, 3 wins, 0 place, 1 show Lifetime Earnings - $487,560

Click to read about all of the 20 horses including the favorites Bodemeister and Union Rags (and my pick Take Charge Indy)
Rousing Sermon Odds – 50 to 1 Post Position – 7 Jockey – Jose Lezcano Trainer – Jerry Hollandorfer Owner – Larry Williams Sire – Lucky Pulpit Dam – Rousing Again (Awesome Again) Last Race – 3rd in Louisiana Derby (93) 4wd turns, 6w 1/4 Next to Last Race – 5th in San Felipe (93) 5wd on straight, no rally Lifetime Record – 9 races, 2 wins, 2 place, 4 show Lifetime Earnings - $381,000
Optimizer Odds –  50 to 1 Post Position – 2 Jockey – Jon Court Trainer – D. Wayne Lucas Owner – Bluegrass Hall Sire – English Channel Dam – Indy Pick (AP Indy) Last Race – 9th Arkansas Derby (82) steady early, tired Next to Last Race – 2nd in Rebel (96) 6w ¼, full of run Lifetime Record – 9 races, 1 win, 2 place, 1 show Lifetime Earnings - $215,594
Sabercat Odds – 30 to 1 Post Position – 18 Jockey – Corey Nakatani Trainer – Steve Asmussen Owner – Winchell Thouroughbreds Sire – Bluegrass Cat Dam – Miners Blessing (Forty Niner) Last Race – 3rd Arkansas Derby (94) unhurried, drifted Next to Last Race – 8th in Rebel (90) lacked bid Lifetime Record – 8 races, 3 wins, 0 place, 2 show Lifetime Earnings - $782,849
Daddy Long Legs Odds – 30 to 1 Post Position – 1 Jockey – Colm O’Donoghue Trainer – Aidan O’Brien Owner – Derrick Smith Sire – Scat Daddy Dam – Dreamy Maiden (Meadowlake) Last Race – 1 UAE Derby, 3wd 1st turn Next to Last Race – 12th Breeders Cup Juvenile (81) driven out stayed wall Lifetime Record – 5 races, 3 wins, 0 place, 0 show Lifetime Earnings - $1,308, 752
Prospective Odds – 30 to 1 Post Position – 12 Jockey – Luis Contreras Trainer – Mark Casse Owner – John Oxley Sire – Malibu Moon Dam – Awesome Again Last Race – 6th in Toyota Blue Grass (95) 4w, 3/8pl Next to Last Race – 1st in Tampa Bay Derby (95) headed, came again Lifetime Record – 8 races, 4 wins, 2 place, 0 show Lifetime Earnings - $443,192 At Least One Flaw (I wouldn't be shocked if they won, but they havn't shown as much as the top of this class) Whether it be lack of a big win against top competiion, a low Bayer speed score, an unfortunate post postion draw or bloodlines that point to not being able to make the distance.  They don't have to overcome as much as the 'longshots' above, but they will have to have perfect trips along with some of the contenders struggling to have a shot.


Trinniberg Odds – 50 to 1 Post Position – 9 Jockey – Willie Martinez Trainer – Bisnath Parboo Owner – Shivananda Racing Sire – Teuflesburg Dam – Bella Dorato (Goldminers Gold) Last Race – 1st in Bay Shore (100) in 2nd place, asked late Next to Last Race – 1st in Swale (103) drew off, driving Lifetime Record – 7 races, 3 wins, 2 place, 0 show Lifetime Earnings - $341,000
I’ll Have Another Odds – 12 to 1 Post Position – 19 Jockey – Mario Gutierrez Trainer – Doug O’Neil Owner – Paul Reddam Sire – Flower Alley Dam – Arch Gail (Arch) Last Race – 1st in Santa Anita Derby (98) bid 3w 1/8, gamely Next to Last Race – 1st in Robert Lewis (102) stalked, bid, led, clear Lifetime Record – 5 races, 3 wins, 1 place, 0 show Lifetime Earnings - $634,000
El Padrino Odds – 20 to 1 Post Position – 16 Jockey – Rafael Bejarano Trainer – Todd Pletcher Owner – Lets Go Stable Sire – Pulpit Dam – Enchanted Rock (Giants Causeway) Last Race – 4th in Florida Derby (100) 4wd, not enough late Next to Last Race – 1st in Risen Star (101) 3wd, brushed, gamely Lifetime Record – 6 races, 3 wins, 1 place, 1 show Lifetime Earnings - $316,000
Creative Cause Odds – 12 to 1 Post Position – 8 Jockey – Joel Rosario Trainer – Mike Harrington Owner – Heinz Steinman Sire – Giants Causeway Dam – Dream of Summer (Siberian Summer) Last Race – 2nd in Santa Anita Derby (97) bid btw 1/8 gamely Next to Last Race – 1st in San Felipe (102) 5wd to str, drifted Lifetime Record – 8 races, 4 wins, 2 place, 2 show Lifetime Earnings - $869,000 Went the Day Well Odds – 20 to 1 Post Position – 13 Jockey – John Velazquez Trainer – H Graham Motion Owner – Valor International Sire – Proud Citizen Dam – Tiz Maies (Tiznow) Last Race – 1st in Vinery Spiral (103) 3wd bid, driving Next to Last Race – 1st amateur race (93) angled out, edged away Lifetime Record – 5 raced, 2 wins, 2 place, 0 show Lifetime Earnings - $315,000 The Contenders (This is where most of my money will go and I think each of these horses has shown that they can compete, and win, with the big boys) This is what is so frustrating about doing research into the Kentucy Derby field.  The more I look into the horses the more horses I start to like.  I wish I could put a bet on all of the following, though that would obviously be excessive.
Dullahan Odds – 8 to 1 Post Position – 5 Jockey – Kent Desormeaux         Trainer – Dale Romans Owner – Donegal Racing Sire – Even the Score Dam – Mining My Own (Smart Strike) Last Race – 1st in Toyota Blue Grass (102) unprepared str, in time Next to Last Race – 2nd in Palm Beach (98) 4wd, gaining slowly Lifetime Record – 8 raced, 2 wins, 2 place, 2 show Lifetime Earnings - $872,091
Hansen Odds – 10 to 1 Post Position – 14 Jockey – Ramon Dominguez Trainer – Mike Maker Owner – Dr. Hansen Sire – Tapit Dam – Stormy Sunday (Sir Cat) Last Race – 2nd in Toyota Blue Grass (100) repulsed bid, game Next to Last Race – 1st in Gotham (105) stalked, bid, clear Lifetime Record – 6 races, 4 wins, 2 place, 0 show Lifetime Earnings - $1,623,305
Union Rags Odds – 9 to 2 Post Position – 4 Jockey – Julein Leparoux Trainer – Michael Matz Owner – Chadds Ford Sire – Dixie Union Dam – Tempo (Gone West) Last Race – 3rd in Florida Derby (102) best stride, too late Next to Last Race – 1st in Fountain of Youth (103) 3wd, ridden out Lifetime Record – 6 races, 4 wins, 1 place, 1 show Lifetime Earnings - $1,198,000
Gemologist Odds – 6 to 1 Post Position – 15 Jockey – Javier Castellano Trainer – Todd Pletcher Owner – Winstar Farm Sire – Tiznow Dam – Crystal Shard (Prospector) Last Race – 1st in Wood Memorial (102) 3wd trip, stubborn Next to Last Race – 1st in Kentucky Jockey Club (98) drew off, handidly Lifetime Record – 5 races, 5 wins, 0 place, 0 show Lifetime Earnings - $784,855
Daddy Nose Best Odds – 15 to 1 Post Position – 10 Jockey – Garret Gomez Trainer – Steve Asmussen Owner – Zollars Sire – Scat Daddy Dam – Follow Your Bliss (Thunder Gulch) Last Race – 1st Sunland Derby (101) 3wd roused, responded Next to Last Race – 1st El Camino Real (92) blocked at ¼ pole Lifetime Record – 10 races, 4 wins, 2 place, 1 show Lifetime Earnings - $633,623
Bodemeister Odds – 4 to 1 (Morning Line Favorite) Post Position – 6 Jockey – Mike Smith Trainer – Bob Baffert Owner – Zayat Stables Sire – Empire Maker Dam – Untouched Talent (Storm Cat) Last Race – 1st in Arkansas Derby (105) legit pace, much the best Next to Last Race – 2nd in San Felipe (102) drifted out, gamely Lifetime Record – 4 races, 2 wins, 2 place, 0 show Lifetime Earnings - $704,800
Take Charge Indy Odds – 15 to 1 Post Position – 3 Jockey – Calvin Borel Trainer – Patrick Byrne Owner – Chuck Sandford Sire – AP Indy Dam – Take Charge (Dehere) Last Race – 1st in Florida Derby (104) rail, prevailed Next to Last Race – 2nd in Risen Star (109-fastest in field) yielded late Lifetime Record – 6 races, 2 wins, 2 place, 0 show Lifetime Earnings - $721,000
Alpha Odds – 15 to 1 Post Position – 11 Jockey – Rajiv Maragh Trainer – Kiaran McLaughlin Owner – Godolphin Sire – Bernardini Dam – Munnaya (Nijinsky) Last Race – 2nd in Wood Memorial (101) stead’d 1st, 3w upper Next to Last Race – 1st in Withers (100) 3w turns, hand urged Lifetime Record – 6 races, 3 wins, 2 place, 0 show Lifetime Earnings - $500,000
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