NCAAB odds, pick for San Francisco vs. Saint Mary’s for Tuesday, Feb. 20

San Francisco vs. Saint Mary's Odds

Tuesday, Feb 20, 11 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

San Francisco Dons

The Dons have been performing well in WCC play, and they have an excellent opportunity to pull off a big upset on the road after narrowly losing to Gonzaga last month. San Francisco has a top-40 ranking in defensive efficiency, and it has been shooting 55% from the floor on offense.

The Dons have been particularly good at shooting from the charity stripe, with a team percentage of 78%. They also prevent their shots from being blocked as the No. 1 team in the country in offensive block percentage.

However, the Dons will face a tough matchup against the Gaels, who rank first in the country in opposing 2-point percentage. San Francisco must step up its interior scoring game to have a chance.

Forward Jonathan Mogbo has been one of the best players in the WCC, shooting 66% from the floor, and his frontcourt teammates — headlined by Ndewedo Newbury and Mike Sharavjamts — have also been excellent.

The Dons will need to slow down their tempo to win against the Gaels, which should not be an issue since Saint Mary's is also slow on offense.

Saint Mary's Gaels

Randy Bennett's team has the potential to be a national title contender.

Even though many people doubt the WCC, that doesn't mean a team from this conference can't make a deep run in March. The Gaels are in the top 10 in defensive efficiency and rank 62nd in offensive efficiency.

They excel at offensive rebounding, which gives them additional scoring opportunities that can burn the clock. However, their free-throw shooting has been a concern considering they are shooting 68% as a team, which ranks among the bottom 60 teams in the nation.

But Saint Mary's defense alone is strong enough to win this game. The Gaels rank top five in defensive rebounding and opposing field goal percentage, which should be enough to shut down the efficient frontcourt of the Dons.

I expect the matchup to be a slow-paced defensive battle, with neither team lighting up the scoreboard. The Gaels' excellent backcourt play, led by Aidan Mahaney, has been the difference in their success in WCC play.

Mahaney's shooting from deep has improved significantly, from under 28% in December up to 34.9% currently, and he has been sensational throughout conference play. Although this game is not expected to be high-scoring, the Gaels have more scoring options and a better offense than the Dons, making them the more reliable choice to win.

San Francisco vs. Saint Mary's

Betting Pick & Prediction

Although San Francisco should be able to put up a better fight than its previous matchup against Saint Mary's, its offense might not be strong enough to win this game. Betting on the Under seems to be a better approach.

While the Dons are weak in their perimeter defense, they have a solid interior defense. Both teams have a similar tempo, but the Gaels are an outstanding offensive rebounding team.

The Gaels will most likely win the battle on the glass on both ends of the floor. This will help the Under's case even more, as the game should stall to a crawl. Though the Dons will not go down without a fight, this game seems like it will be a slow-paced rock fight.

Pick: Under 132.5