Alabama lurks, but likely needs help to reach CFP

Alabama has an outside chance of making the College Football Playoff semifinals, but it must do something no team has done to finish in the top four.

In the nine years of the CFP, each of the 36 semifinalists was ranked no lower than sixth in the penultimate rankings. The Tide are ranked eighth entering Championship Sunday.

For the first time in the playoff era, Alabama might not control its destiny in getting to the playoff if it upsets No. 1 Georgia (12-0, 8-0 in SEC) in the SEC championship. The Tide needs help.

No. 2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0 in Big Ten) is a 23-point favorite against No. 16 Iowa (10-2, 7-2 in Big Ten) and, according to ESPN Analytics, has a 92.6 percent chance of winning. The Pac-12 champion, either an undefeated Washington or one-loss Oregon, is all but guaranteed a spot in the playoff, too.

Either No. 4 Florida State (12-0, 8-0 in ACC) or No. 7 Texas (11-1, 8-1 in Big 12) must lose for an SEC champion Bama to finish in the top four.

Debate persists about the Seminoles without quarterback Jordan Travis. Still, if they take care of business against No. 14 Louisville (10-2, 7-1 in ACC) in the ACC championship game, it's difficult to imagine the committee putting the Tide over them.

It would be even harder to rationalize placing Alabama ahead of Texas if it wins the Big 12. Earlier this season, the Longhorns scored arguably the best win of the regular season when it beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa, 34-24.

Would the committee pull a move like it did in 2014 when it propelled Ohio State over TCU in the final rankings by lifting the Tide above the Seminoles and/or Longhorns? That thought should be entertained only if Bama replicates the Buckeyes' Big Ten championship romp over Wisconsin, 59-0 that season.

Georgia, a six-point favorite on Saturday, will make the conversation irrelevant if it gets its second consecutive win in the series following its 2021 national championship game win. 

How much help does Bama need to reach the CFP semifinals? That's a question the committee probably hopes it doesn't have to answer.