Originally posted on Backyard Sports Blog  |  Last updated 11/2/11
I will start with saying this will be a better game than the National Title game this year.  These are clearly the two best teams in the nation.  Both teams boast a power defense that will cause turnovers, and both teams run the ball extremely well.  Both teams have won big over ranked opponents so far this year.  LSU has crushed 5 top 25 opponents in  Oregon, Miss St., West Va., Florida, and Auburn.  Alabama has beat Penn St., Arkansas, and Florida.  Clearly the LSU Tigers have the advantage in strength of schedule so far this year.  The line on this game is currently going off at -5 in favor of Alabama.  I'm guessing this is based on home field advantage.


Defense:  LSU will be at an advantage if this game gets dirty.  I predict a tough hard fought game that will be lower scoring than most predict.  Yards will be hard to come by with these two defenses squaring off.  LSU is third in the nation in average points given up a game with 11.5, and Alabama leads the nation with an average of 6.9.  As I listed above LSU has played a little harder schedule, but these numbers are close enough anyway.  LSU presents way more speed and athleticism to force turnovers, with Alabama being bigger and stronger.  LSU has gone five-straight games without a turnover and have an incredible plus-15 turnover ratio on the year.

QB:  My quarterback match-up goes to Jarrett Lee.  He is the elder being a Senior compared to McCarron who is a Sophomore.  LSU likes to pick their shots more in the passing game and keep it safe.  Lee has a passer rating of 157, with 13 touchdowns at only 1 interception.  McCarron has a passer rating of 150 with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions.  McCarron has thrown the ball almost 50 more times.  Also look for LSU to use their backup QB Jordan Jefferson in running situations, and possibly in the red zone.  With this game revolving around the defense interceptions will be a killer.


Home Field: Home field advantage will be huge in this game as in every other big game in college football history.  Alabama hasn't lost at home in the regular season since 2007.  Everyone knows how college crowds get in games like this.  The booze will be flowing and the hype will be out of the roof.  Hearing snap counts and play calls will be tough for the Tigers.

Running Game: Trent Richardson, enough said.  Richardson leads the SEC with 126 rushing yards per game and 17 touchdown runs.  Here is what his center had to say about him.  "He can run for 150 yards against the Florida Gators and he'll be in the weight room on Sunday," Vlachos said. "Then he'll go out to practice on Monday and take every carry like he's a fourth-string tailback fighting for playing time."  Can't get much more praise than that.

This game will decide which coach gets the upper hand on the other.  The Miles vs. Saban match-up is tied at two games a piece.  With the over under being at 42 points I would go with the under and LSU +5.  Don't let me fool you, I have this game going to Alabama.

Final: Alabama 17 - LSU 13

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