NCAAF Bowls: Best bets for Wednesday, Dec. 27

Duke's Mayo Bowl

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
5:30 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Mountaineers -6.5

North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye is not playing in this game as he prepares for the NFL Draft. When the season started, West Virginia head coach Neal Brown was on one of the hottest seats in the country and now it looks like he has bought himself some more time. I am not sure for what, but the Mountaineers should be more competitive in a Big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma moving forward. The Mountaineers are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS as a favorite this season. What people might have missed throughout the year is that this team is third in the nation in rushing, with three players. Including the quarterback finishing with more than 700 yards on the ground. North Carolina is not a strong defensive team and without the ability of Maye to either stake them to a lead or help them come back they are an easy fade here.

More: West Virginia, UNC have taken different paths to bowl meeting

Holiday Bowl
Louisville Cardinals vs. USC Trojans
8 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Over 57.5

The big story here is probably going to be about Caleb Williams, USC’s superlative quarterback not playing. That sucks for fans who do not get to see a fun talent. It is going to have no bearing on USC’s defense though and it is that group that this pick is predicated on (and that torpedoed a promising season). USC finished 125th in points allowed this year, giving up 35 ppg. Yes, they have switched up some coaches and have had some extra practices but I doubt this group become stout enough to do much to slow a Louisville offense led by the innovative Jeff Brohn. Plus, I have lots of confidence in USC’s own offensive innovator, head coach Lincoln Riley being able to get his Trojans to be functional on offense to the tune of at least 24 points. Look for this one to cruise past the over before the end of the third quarter. 

More: Tall task awaits USC in No. 15 Louisville at Holiday Bowl

Texas Bowl
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas A&M Aggies
9 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Cowboys +1.5

If you like continuity over chaos then Oklahoma State has to be the play. I do like the hire of new head coach Mike Elko by the Aggies a lot, but it probably takes a couple of years for him to make the program what they want it to be. Meanwhile, the Cowboys were sneaky good this season, and just because they did not push playoff-bound Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game does not mean they can't compete in this spot. Oklahoma State does not have the same talent base, but at least the guys they do have want to be there. That has to be worth just a little bit, right? This is expected to be a close game with the number coming down. A moneyline pick might make the most sense. 

More: Oklahoma State braces for unknown vs. Texas A&M in Texas Bowl