NCAAF Week 1 Best Bets: These plays make dollars and sense

Saturday, September 2

Colorado @ TCU
Buffaloes +20.5

No program has ever had an offseason like Colorado has just had. I am betting on the fact that makes them really hard to rate and thus the market might be off. The Buffs were so bad last year and being functional on offense is going to make a big difference this season, so will having the best set of cornerbacks in the game (maybe). As for TCU, they are the better team, but this is not the same team that made it to the title game last year. They are leaning on different players in several key spots, especially on offense. 

If we can get to +21 even better. This is a great teaser spot. 

South Florida @ Western Kentucky
Over 71

Western Kentucky is the top team in CUSA this season and with QB Austin Reed back, last year's second-best passing attack should be ready to click quickly. Defense was not their specialty which is going to make it easier for South Florida and their first-year coach Alex Golesh to implement the concepts that got him the job (former OC at Tennessee). USF gave up 41 ppg last season. Look for that number to feel very, very right in a high-scoring loss in their opener on the road. 

Both teams should score at least 30. 

Toledo @ Illinois
Rockets +9.5

Illinois was really strong last season, especially defensively. They have lost their top playmakers on both sides of the ball though so their ability to play low-scoring games and dominate physically may be compromised. Meanwhile, Toledo returns the core of its offense — eight starters — and with a veteran coach they are a dangerous opponent for Illinois to start the season. Even when they were winning last season they did not dominate often.

I think an upset is possible and would play the Rockets all the way down to +7.