2024 PGA Championship picks: Action Network's outright bets for Valhalla

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Brooks Koepka +1700 (bet365)

By Spencer Aguiar, Action Network

There has been an overcorrection regarding LIV Golf players heading into the PGA Championship. There is less of a boost in odds with Brooks Koepka at 17-1 than the increases of Rahm at 20-1 or Dustin Johnson lingering out there at 90-1 at some shops. However, I am taking that mentality of aggressively trying to take on Scottie Scheffler with players who have darted for that "other" tour.

If you have access to that Johnson number at 90-1, it will not last long (he is also on my card), but there is a ton to like about Koepka in his quest for PGA Championship immortality. The American has won three of the past six titles since 2018 and added another close call in 2021 when Phil Mickelson shocked the golf world at Kiawah Island.

Koepka's robust driving and increased projections from 200+ yards will always become evident at these lengthy PGA Championship tests. He ranked first for both Strokes Gained: Total at any PGA Championship test and here for Valhalla when I ran the metrics for this course-specific outlook.

Whether it is Johnson, Rahm or Koepka, I will use that trio to try and take down the PGA Tour king, Scottie Scheffler.

Will Zalatoris +6500 (bet365)

By Greg Waddell, Action Network

Everything in my bones wants to take Scottie Scheffler once again, but at 4-1 odds amidst a break from golf to become a father, that price is just too steep. However, if you choose not to back Scheffler this weekend, it's imperative to find an alternative who has a track record of showing up when the lights are brightest, and Zalatoris fits the bill.

Of all players in the field at the PGA Championship this weekend, Zalatoris is second (behind just Scheffler) in Total Strokes Gained in Major Championships over the last three seasons. Scheffler’s mark of 2.70 narrowly beats Zalatoris’ mark of 2.64, before a massive drop to 2.15 for Rory McIlroy, who ranks third in the field.

Zalatoris has typically always shown up to compete at the majors, regardless of form, and this year has been no different. He has three top-10 finishes this season in 11 total starts, but one came at the Masters, where he tied for ninth.

Zalatoris should be a strong fit for Valhalla, as he grades out well in two of the most important categories for the weekend: Total Driving (28th on the PGA Tour) and SG: Approach to Green (21st).

My pre-Round 1 betting strategy this week will be centered around finding the best value bets on the board and hoping to pinpoint one that ends up in contention, allowing hedge opportunities in the event that one of the big three (Scheffler, McIlroy, Koepka) goes the distance. Zalatoris at 65-1 is by far the best value on the board given his track record at major championships.

Sahith Theegala +8000 (bet365)

By Matt Gannon, Action Network

It is time for Sahith Theegala to break through in a major championship. He has been much more consistent this season thanks to his improved approach play, which has helped him finish in the top 10 five times in 13 starts. In his early career, he has shown flashes of brilliance but also volatility, like his third-round 82 this past weekend at Quail Hollow.

From my early walk of Valhalla this morning, the course seems to be a lot easier than we are expecting. The thick rough is far less in play than many expect as it is around but not near the fairways.

Outside of that, the greens are extremely soft and will only get softer with rain expected this week. This will open the door for many golfers to contend, and Theegala is one who prefers easier conditions.

Very few drives are intimidating around Valhalla, which will lead to a lot of golfers hitting greens in regulation. From there, Greens in Regulation Percentage and Birdie or Better Percentage will surprisingly come into play here, and Theegala ranks among the top 35 in both. Pencil in Theegala at long odds to get into the mix this week.

Ludvig Aberg +1900 (bet365)

By Tony Sartori, Action Network

19-1 is a relatively generous price that is baking in any concern about Aberg’s knee injury that held him out of the Wells Fargo Championship. However, I am not too worried about that and believe he was just playing things super carefully, considering how much more this event means than last week’s.

His form prior to that withdrawal is why I think it was more “maintenance” rather than “injury,” given that Aberg has fired off 16 straight weekend appearances on Tour. Over that stretch, he boasts 11 top-15 finishes, including his win at The RSM Classic and three other runner-up finishes.

One of those runner-up finishes was at Augusta as Aberg was the last man left battling Scheffler on Sunday. He didn’t get it done, but it confirmed that at just 24-years-old, Åberg is indeed the likely next big superstar in this sport.

There really isn’t a flaw in Aberg's game other than some inconsistency in his short game. With that said, Valhalla is all about the long hitting and accurate ball striking, two aspects of the Swede’s game that absolutely are not in question.