AL West
Seattle Mariners
After a brief diversion to look at some non-roster invitees, I’m back on track with my Cellar Dweller series and examining the AL West’s presumptive worst team. Outside of the Royals in the AL Central, picking the Mariners to finish in the AL West’s basement was probably my easiest pick to make. After coming into the 2010 season as one of the most popular ‘team to surprise’ selections of the year, the Mariners failed to live up to even the most modest of expectations while slumping to a 61-101 record; 19 games behind the third place Angels. Replacing Adrian Beltre with Chone Figgins (.302 wOBA) and trading for Cliff Lee (2.58 FIP) was meant to allow the team to solidify the ‘pitching and defense’ foundations upon which had built an 85-77 season in 2009. The season was a disaster, however, with Lee traded off of the sinking ship after just 13 (outstanding) starts, Figgins collapsing at the plate and other acquisitions Casey Kotchman (.270 wOBA), Milton Bradley (.289 wOBA), Erik Bedard (DNP), Mike Sweeney (.340 wOBA) and Eric Byrnes (.207 wOBA) all providing varying levels of ineptitude or ill-health. The team can’t be any worse this campaign can it?
Well, no, they more than likely won’t be, if only because betting on any team to have back-to-back 100 loss seasons is a bad idea. The laws of average and regression should be on this team’s side, but they still appear set to finish well below .500 as currently constructed. With the pieces they already have, and the ballpark they play in, continuing to focus on gloves and arms is a perfectly defensible strategy. The problem the Mariners have is that no matter how good your pitchers and defenders are they will, on occasion, need some help from the offense. This help was in woefully short supply last year as the M’s offensive output was one of the worst in living memory, putting a miserable 513 runs on the board. I could comfortably spend the rest of this column putting that number into context, but this is supposed to be a forward looking series so let’s just say that 513 is an incredibly low number of runs to score over a 162 game season and must be improved upon in 2011. And it will be improved upon. Just as with the team’s loss total, it’s incredibly unlikely that this year’s squad won’t score more runs than last year.
Even if simple regression does lead to more runs scored, the Mariners are still likely to have one of the majors’ worst offenses. Looking at the projected opening day lineup, it is difficult to see where any modicum of power is going to come from. At the top of the order Ichiro (.338 wOBA) is a safe bet to have his usual .320/.360/.420 type season and, while I acknowledge the unlikelihood of him sniffing 2009’s .395 OBA ever again, Figgins should bounce back from his annus horribilis and be a useful two-hole hitter. After the top two, things get dicey quickly. Some of the sheen has come off of first baseman Justin Smoak (.300 wOBA) due to his slow start at the major league level, but the ability is still there for him to be average or slightly above for his position, even while playing half his games at Safeco. Unfortunately he, along with newly signed designated hitter Jack Cust (.371 wOBA), will be the Mariners’ main power threat this year along with whatever support the streaky combination of Miguel Olivo (.327 wOBA) and Franklin Gutierrez (.300 wOBA) can provide in that area. The threat of extra bases will be negligible this summer in Washington State, and there just isn’t going to be enough on-base ability in the line up to compensate.
The defending Cy Young Award winner can once again expect little run support.
The haplessness of the hitting would be easier to overlook if I believed the Mariners were going to spend the 2011 season shutting down opponents with their lights out pitching. Granted, the expanse of Safeco will keep many a flyball from clearing the fence, but this simply isn’t a pitching staff that can be expected to produce those sorts of results. Felix Hernandez (3.04 FIP) will, health permitting, be a part of the Cy Young debate come season’s end, but there is little else in the rotation to inspire confidence. Of course it’s easy to be wise after the event, but it is worth questioning again why GM Jack Zduriencik felt the need to trade Brandon Morrow (3.16 FIP) for reliever Brandon League (3.91 FIP) after the 2010 season. Morrow is an affordable fly-ball pitcher with the potential for huge strikeout numbers every time he starts. In short, and despite of his control issues, exactly the sort of starting pitcher the Mariners should crave. League is a perfectly decent reliever, one who may even end up closing while David Aardsma (4.05 FIP) is injured, but there are many pitchers capable of replicating his performance and a scarce few with the attributes of Morrow. Elsewhere in the rotation, Jason Vargas (3.95 FIP) is the likely number two; a role he is miscast for due to his certain regression from last year. He can be decent enough in that ballpark but isn’t going to set the world alight. The only other certainty for a starting spot is Doug Fister (3.65 FIP), who isn’t a great bet to repeat last year’s modest success if he keeps throwing his 88mph fastball 67% of the time. If, as seems likely, Luke French (5.29 FIP) and Erik Bedard complete the rotation, the M’s rotation will begin the year with one pitcher who isn’t very good, and one who isn’t very healthy. I’m sure Mariners’ fans would agree that the weaknesses of that rotation would be significantly mitigated by a mulligan on the Morrow trade.
The one area where the Mariners have the opportunity to be elite this year, and it’s a somewhat significant area, is with their defense in key, up the middle positions. The double play combination of Brendan Ryan (.256 wOBA) and Jack Wilson (.262 wOBA) might hit like a couple of pitchers but they both offer well above average defense around the keystone. Personally I’d keep Ryan at short and move Wilson over to second but that’s likely to provide a marginal improvement at best and Wilson, being the incumbent, is less likely to be inconvenienced in these situations. As difficult as it will be to get a groundball single up the middle against this Mariners defense, it will be even more arduous getting fly balls and line drives to drop into centerfield for hits. Franklin Gutierrez is as good as it gets at patrolling the outfield, and will make climbing walls and chasing down balls in the alley look very easy out there.
Prognosis:
The pitching and defense model in a big ballpark is a perfectly fine strategy if you don’t have big bats in the lineup to score the runs; the A’s and the Padres have proven this over the last couple of years. Where the strategy falls down is if one those two components are not strong enough to make up for an offense that, even with likely improvements, will still be significantly below average. Defensively the Mariners should be fine. Excellent, even. But looking at the pitching depth chart, I just can’t see how that staff are going to be able to keep the runs off the board to the extent that will be required. Yes, Safeco will help what is generally a fly ball staff, but there are too many spots where the pitching talent available is going to be a notch below what is required. Help is on its way, however. Michael Pineda’s name has made regular appearances in the upper echelons of prospect rankings all winter and could be ready for the big league rotation in the second half and Dustin Ackley was the second overall pick in the 2009 Rule IV draft and will be playing second base at Safeco as soon as he has learned the position to an acceptable level. Even if both of those prospects are called up by the All-Star break and get off to good starts, I still don’t envisage the supporting cast being good enough to lift the Mariners above any of their division rivals and out of last place.
- 2011 Cellar Dwellers – NL Central
- 2011 Cellar Dwellers: NL West
- 2011 Cellar Dwellers: AL Central
- 2011 Cellar Dwellers: AL East
- D-Backs Finalize Contract with Howry
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Original Story:
http://fullcountpitch.com/2011/03/08/...
